Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 23, 2023
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.
The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.
To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When both sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.
Now, let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.RECAP of yesterday's games: We had no games to recap from yesterday.
A Grateful Greeting
Happy Thanksgiving to all! I’m incredibly thankful for each one of you tuning into the Overnight Grind. Your support means the world, and I wish everyone a fantastic day filled with joy, gratitude, and of course, some exciting sports betting action!
NFL Spotlight: Analyzing Lines and Movements
Today, with no NHL or NBA games, our focus shifts to the NFL, alongside College Basketball (CBB) and College Football (CFB). Let’s dive right into the NFL matchups and their intriguing line movements.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
In Detroit, expectations lean towards a Lions blowout, but the line movement suggests a closer game, potentially within a touchdown. The Lions kicked off at -7.5, but early interest in Green Bay nudged the line down to -7. Subsequently, a surge of bets on the Lions pushed it back up to -7.5 and even -8 at some points. The total, initially at 44.5, has climbed steadily, likely closing around 48. This upward trend indicates a forecast for more scoring than initially expected.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
The Cowboys, as anticipated, are the popular pick against Washington. However, the line movement tells a nuanced story. Opening at -9.5 on November 15, the line for the Cowboys rose to -11 by November 19. Continued support for Dallas pushed it to -14, where it finally saw significant backing for Washington, stabilizing the line at -13. The total, initially at 45, has also seen a rise, now standing at 48.5, suggesting an expectation for a high-scoring game.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers have experienced noticeable line movement, with the line oscillating between -5 and -7.5 throughout the week. Despite opening at -5, it’s been a tug-of-war between these numbers. Since November 21, it settled at -7, but as of yesterday, it has ticked up to -7.5. Bookmakers seem to be angling for some action on Seattle at this point, making the 49ers the favored team but not without some resistance.
CBB and CFB: A Quick Look
I will update CBB and CFB before 12 PM EST.
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