Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 19th

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were bang on last night on 2 of 3 moves. Wasnt an easy game for the Leafs however they won their 5th straight. Calgary cruised through Buffalo and Tokarski. The Stars however got clobbered last night in Wild nation.

Vancouver Canucks

And we are back writing about them. The Jets are on a road B2B and they are 0-1 in this situation this year. The 11th best power play will face the WORST PK in the league. Market makers opened the Jets a -125 favourite yesterday afternoon. Word this morning is that Comrie should be starting over Hellebuyck which started yesterday. The sharps jumped at the news accumulated positions on Vancouver which lowered the line to -110. The book hasn't handled much on this game yet but is ready to do so with a Bax bet limit set at $6,000. Our NHL betting model has the Jets projected to win at 52.15% which translates to a moneyline of -109 and there is no value on both teams.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons 4-10 ( 6-8 ATS) host the hot Warriors 13-2 (10-4 ATS). We have 2 market makers that opened the line at -10.5 yesterday afternoon. The line instantly dropped by 1 point and it sat at -9.5 for the rest of the day. This morning, the line steadily dropped between 7 am and 945am. There is no official news on Curry's usage for tonight. We have 2 sets of sharps on this game, one set hit the Pistons at +10.5 and +9.5 while the other set hit the Warriors at -7. The Warriors own 70% of the tickets and 80% of the handle. The line movement in favour of the Pistons came from either a well-respected sharp or a large sum wagered on the game. The max bet risk is still low at BetOnline therefore I still expect movement on this game. Our NBA model projected the Warrior at -7 and the line moved according and I confirm that based on our model there was value on the Pistons.

Memphis Tigers

The Houston Cougars won their last 5 and are 3-2 ATS. They opened a 10pt favourite about 5 days ago and since then the line dropped to -8.5. The book already has 250k in hand and the max bet risk is set to 27k. Yes, this line matured and based on the Sharps, Memphis +10 was the position they wanted. The handle is 50/50 however the Cougars will be a very popular square play and I might like them also if this line drops at -7. My projections are set on the Cougars to win by 10 therefore there wasn't much value at that current number.

Good luck tonight!

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