Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 18th

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Vancouver was looking good until they collapsed and started taking stupid penalties which sunk them solid. I haven't seen this bad of a power play killing in a long time. The Capitals were on a B2B and Samsonov was the starter therefore our model showed solid value on them while the sharps were wrong on taking a position on the Kings. It's was close however the sharps were right on on the Cavaliers!

Today we will use a different style of format.

NOTICEABLE MOVERS IN THE NHL:

TORONTO: Market makers opened this line at -155 and it increased by 20% yesterday. No movement overnight. The movement on this game is limited at this point. Our model has this game at -168 for The Leafs therefore there is no value on both sides. We have sharps on the Leafs at around -157 and another set on the Rangers at about +155.

CALGARY: This game opened at -165 by market makers and moved up at -185 yesterday. No moves overnight. These are all early adjustments and sharps are hitting these heavy favourites. Tokarski is set to start tonight for Buffalo. Our model is showing that the Flames are a little inflated however it's due to the lack of sample size games from Tokarski in my projections. Bet limits are over 10k in this game telling us the book is happy where the line is.

DALLAS: The Wild have lost 2 of the last 3 games and tonight faces the Stars which have scored10 goals in their last 2 and coming in hungry. The market makers were very aggressive and open the Wild a -160 favourite. The Sharps jumped on the +140 and pushed the line down within the first 3 hours it was made available. It's been sitting at -135 for a while and the max limit is only ay 6k so we can still see some more movement here. Our model projected the Wild with a 52.83% win probability therefore the line is moving towards what we projected.

NBA:

There was not much movement overnight. The Heat is inflated as per our model is Butler doesn't play. If he does play then our model is in agreement with the current line.

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