Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 17th

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Capitals lost in overtime and the sharps claim victory vs my model. If you tailed the Ducks congrats. Sharps were wrong on Nebraska and homecourt meant shit yesterday, they lost straight up to Creighton. We saw one of the biggest moves in CS Fullerton and the sharps were absolutely right, Fullerton easily covers.

Vancouver Canucks

Both teams would have loved a better start to their season. Both teams are in the bottom 8 in goals-against however Colorado is close to a top 5 in goals for. Colorado is on a 2 game winning streak and outscored their opponents 13-3. Vancouver lost 4 straight scoring barely 2 GF per game. The markets makers open this game with Colorado a -161 favourite. The opening line is slightly lower than our model projection which has Colorado a -170 favourite with Kuemper starting. While Colorado is owning 70% of the tickets and 90% of the handle, this line moved in favour of the Canucks. The sharps have shown interest in the Canucks at around +140. The Risk max limit in this game is set to 6k. There is room for more movement and I expect to see money come back in on Colorado, however, the Canucks are 14-5 in their L19 when playing at home against Colorado, therefore, this will be very interesting to see where the line closes.

Washington Capitals

And yes we are covering the Caps again. They are on a road back to back which is never easy. 5dimes opened the Caps a -135 favourite yesterday afternoon and we saw some big moves early this morning and now sitting at -110. Our model favours the Caps with a 59.5% win probability (-148) with Vanecek starting. Based on the line movement it's very possible that Fucale gets his second start of the year and in that case, the Caps would move to a 54% win probability and the current line would make more sense. I can confirm that we have 2 sets of sharps on this game. One that took position on the Kings at about +113 and another set supporting the Caps at about -120. The Kings are 5-2 at home while the Caps are 4-1 on the road. The Kings are perfect vs the EAST this season going 6-0. Both teams lost their last game after going through a winning streak therefore it will be nice to see how they bounce back. The Kings are 8-2 L10 when playing at home against Washington and own most of the tickets and money at the book however the handle is small at this time and the max limits are set pretty high already on this game so I don't expect much more movement here.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Let's get this out of the way, BKN is 1-1 on 0 days rest. So we don't have huge data on how they do on B2B this year. The Cavaliers are coming in hot covering their last 4 of 5 however not great at covering on the road in Brooklyn. Market Makers opened the Nets a -13 fav at home and since yesterday afternoon the line slowly dropped to -10.5. There is no indication that the Sharps are on this game. Cleveland owns 70% of the tickets and even though there is not much handle on this game it is the most popular game in terms of ticket volume. Our NBA model (which is always posted the night before) has the Nets favourite by -9.5 and the line is moving towards our projection making our model very efficient since it's pretty good at predicting line movement. In conclusion, I believe, even without any indication, that somewhere a sharp did have something to do with the early movement however I also believe there is a lot of square interest in the Cavaliers tonight.

***update: Sharps taking a position on CLE at +10.5***

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