Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 16th

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Based on the numbers at the book yesterday, I made some late recommendations in our VIP discord server. We took the Niners + the pts, the under and the under in the 1st half.

Tampa Bay come through over the Islanders and I claimed victory over the sharps. The under also cashed in as expected.

Washington Capitals

The 9-4 Ducks host the Capitals tonight. Yes, the 9-4 Ducks and let me add some more ... the #7 home defense, the #7 home PK killing... want more? Ok.... #1 home team overall scoring and #5 home power play team. Who would have thought? The puck line looks interesting in this game. Anaheim is 6-1 in L7 when taking the puck line but it's a big price to pay. Betonline opened the Capitals a -153 favourite yesterday morning. By early afternoon sharps dropped this line by 21 pts. Our NHL model has the Capitals as a heavy favourite with a 66% win probability (-193) The max risk bet at the book is currently at $8,000 therefore this tells us that the book is happy with how the line adjusted and are ready to steadily increase their max limits. Lastly, with the current handle of 70% on the Capitals, it's very clear that the sharps saw value in the Ducks. At the current number (-135) our model shows an EV of +14.66% on the Capitals. It's round 2 of Sharps vs Anthony P.

Nebraska (CBB)

This regional rivalry is between 2 teams that are hard to figure out early on this season. Creighton won its first 2 games however didn't cover and didn't look too convincing on the court. Nebraska lost their first straight as an 18pt favourite. My model has this game a pickem on a neutral court. Home court advantage seems to be huge in this rivalry since in the L4 games the winning margin for the home team is ~ 18.5 pts. Nebraska opened a -1.5 favourite and it didn't take much time for the line to move to -4 in response to an accumulation of bets on Nebraska. The betting limits are still relatively low at 2 market makers book therefore we can assume that this line will keep on moving. The tickets are in favour of Creighton at 55% however the handle is dominated by Nebraska at 77%.

George Washington

We have seen something similar in the Pacific game yesterday where the line movement was insane late in the day. However, in this game, the market maker seems to have completely missed the boat with its initial line offering. Betonline opened George Washington a -3.5 road favourite while 5dimes opened their line at a pickem 20 min later. Betonline was in no rush to adjust their line but they eventually did early in the evening and that's when things started to get crazy. Keep in mind that a retail book opened Fullerton at around -1.5 and -2 therefore you would have never seen this swing. The bet limits at market makers are at about $2,000 and it's safe to say sharps really liked CS Fullerton at a pickem. The lack of response in adjusting the line at Betonline brings me to believe the global line adjustment on this game didn't come from them. My personal model has CS Fullerton a 2 pt favourite. They hold 80% of the tickets and 67% of the money. The handle is under 5k on this game in the early morning.

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