Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 12th

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or moneyline before
everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

We reviewed 3 games yesterday. The Winnipeg Jets, The Seattle Kraken and Baltimore Ravens and the under. Sharps were right on Winnipeg, supporting the Dolphins and the under.

Chicago Blackhawks

Limits are still relatively low this morning and the Blackhawks have the second-lowest max limit at a couple of offshore market maker books. This usually means that they are still anticipating some sharp money to come in on Chicago. Betonline opened the line at -157 yesterday morning. By 1 pm yesterday it had gained ~ 30pts. DraftKings just posted a -225 line. Lastly, multiple sharps have been slamming the limits overnight at -150, -180, -187 and -205 and this line has the potential to reach -240’s. At the book, 70% of the tickets and 85% of the handle is supporting Chicago. Our NHL model has the Blackhawks priced at -160 therefore there is value in Arizona. Both teams combine for a record of 2-20-1 and are at the bottom of any statistical metric except for the Blackhawks owing the 3rd best home penalty kill. Anyone betting the value on the Coyotes?

New York Knicks

Two of the biggest market makers decided to open this line at a pickem. There is a gap between the Knicks and Hornets in my power rankings, so I was surprised about the pickem line. When I published our NBA betting model last evening we had the Knicks projected to win by 3 pts. The line is moving towards our projection and it's currently at -1.5. Sharps with similar betting models jumped on the Knicks as soon as the line was made available yesterday afternoon. The line did reach +2 at Sugarhouse and a set of sharps did take that number and pushed the line back down to -1.5. The Knicks have been solid on the road this year. The Hornets are terrible defensively however very strong offensively. The Knicks have had issues finding some consistency this season, but squares bettors don’t seem to care since they own 70% of the tickets. The interesting metric here is that the handle is 50/50 overnight while max limits were increased at over 5k therefore I don’t see this line moving much today unless major news breaks.

Minnesota Timberwolves

One of the biggest overnight moves was on the Timberwolves. Market makers opened the Lakers a 4.5 favourite yesterday afternoon however this line steadily went down to -2.5 overnight. The handle and tickets are even in this game and the max risk bet is still low therefore some sharps somewhere have accumulated their positions on Minnesota. Our NBA betting model has the Lakers favourite by 2.5 points therefore the opening line was too high. This interest from sharps is difficult to understand with the Twolves losing their last 6 and being terrible in covering the spread in their last 10 games. The Lakers have allowed a ton of points lately and they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Can fatigue and age be a factor in the sharps interest on the Twolves?

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