Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps November 11, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The format of this article will be changed once we will have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: The smart money is on fire!! The Devils did their job and the same goes for the Golden Knights! The over CFB failed to cash!! 2-1 day!

Another busy day!!

In the NHL we will take a look at 1 game. The sharp report 2 other spots but we will keep those for the VIPs. The Dallas start opened at -166 at the market makers and the line moved for 2 reasons. One, even though still not confirmed, Oettinger is starting and two, sharp money landed on Dallas. Our NHL model is still showing value in Dallas and they are projected at -289.

In the NBA we have 2 spots. The first one is the over in Orlando. The total opened at 214 and sharps hit 214, 215.5 and moved the total to 218. Apart from their last game against Dallas, the Magic allowed 134 to HOU (yes Houston), 126 to Sacramento, and 129 to GS. Orlando's offense has been on fire and put up 120+ in 3 of their last 4 games.

We were on Minnesota's last game and they lost by 12 to Phoenix. They have now lost 5 of their last 6 games and 1-5 ATS. Tonight they are in Memphis which has been playing well at home losing only 1 game and being winners of 4 of their last 5 games. The Timberwolves are 7-19 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Memphis and should take a being tonight, right? Memphis opened at -6 yesterday afternoon and the book was forced to drop the line with 65% of the handle on Minnesota.

I don't have much to discuss in CFB and in CBB there are way too many games to review. The max bet limits are very low in CBB and sharp interest is very scattered and books are quick to move lines. A couple of noticeable games to point out:

Detroit from +11.5 to +8.5
Gonzaga from -9 to -11.5
Kansas St from -4 to -6
West Virginia from 0 to -2.5
Old Dominion from 0 to -2
Chicago State with the biggest move from +14 to +10
Fresno State from +1 to -1.5

Good luck today

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