Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 9 , 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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I hope everyone had a great mothers day yesterday. We are back with the Overnight Grind for this beautiful Monday in Montreal!!

We have 3 massive games in the NHL tonight. The Avs can sweep the Preds today while in the 3 other games the Pens, Caps and Stars are up 2-1. The Stars and Caps have surprised many taking a 2-1 lead and I believe we will be tied up at 2 by the end of the night.

In terms of sharp money, we have sharp money on both sides of every game except the Pens. The volume of tickets and handle is still low however the bet limits are close to 7k and the books feel comfortable basically pricing the teams at a pickem. The Rangers opened at -117 and are now down to -105 with sharp interest in the Pens. The defense has failed the Rangers in this first round and I didn't expect that. Allowing over 13 goals in 3 games is not the way the Rangers play. I have a decent bet on the Rangers winning the series and I don't feel confident about it anymore after seeing the Pens offense taking over this series. I believe the Rangers will bounce back from the last game's beating and I will not support the sharp money in this one.

We have 2 games in the NBA. Morant is doubtful and the line has now reached -10.5 for the Warriors. Sharps are on both sides of that game even with Morant out and I am seeing some RLM early this morning at +10.5. The same situation applies in the Bucks game, we have sharp interest on both sides however the sharp handle on the Celtics pushed the line down from Bucks -1.5 to a pickem. The Bucks have been dominating the board and allowed less than 90 points in 2 of the first 3 games. They limited the Celtics to 37% from the field and the momentum is high on the Bucks. It's a tough game to call and my model has the Bucks at -1.5.

In the MLB we have a couple of moves where value has now thinned out. In the first game, the sharps tackled the Rays. The Rays opened a +139 underdog and sharps jumped on that number and the +125 pushing the line down to +118. The Rays need to travel to LA with a very tired bullpen and face Syndergaard, Ohtani and Trout. My model has this game at -103 and my model agrees with sharp interest on the Rays. Personally, I don't like the Rays and their consistencies this season. In the second game, we find another underdog that the sharps like. The A's were an early target from the sharps but it's hard to support a team that hasn't won a game in their last 9 games. The Tigers don't look any better losing all 4 games in Houston and getting shut down by Odorizzi. I prefer Blackburn over Pineda today especially since Pineda has an xERA close to 6 and a limited pitch mix. Both offenses are shit and none of them have played the over in their last 4 games and we have a low total of 7. My model has the Tigers at -110 and once again the model did call for value on the A's. I will stay away from this game but my lean would be the A's.

Good luck today

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