Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 6 , 2022

3 years ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Review to follow: NY Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays

Ok, so we are at a point in the NHL playoffs where we kinda know more or less what the lines will be as game 3 of round 1 starts tomorrow. There is no value nor sharp money on any of the 4 games up to now. In the US markets, we have some books that decided to do their own thing and got slammed. I call them "salams" which is an Italian word/slang which means stupid / Idiot. Example... Bet Rivers were a bunch of salams opening the Bruins total at 6 under -120 while market makers clearly established 5.5 was the number. Salam is also short for salami. Ok ok, enough with this shit, if you can get the Bruins under 6 take it but as I mentioned before, nothing more to report for hockey right now.

In the NBA the Miami Heat have been getting steaming since this morning. The moment the line hit +1 a flood of money started coming in on them pushing the line from +1 to -4. Some books posted a -5 (Circa) and that is when some buyback on the 76ers happened and the line settled at -3, That is a lot of movement. Most of the movement can be related to the expectations that Embiid would return for game 3 but he won't. The current line is a fair line without Embiid and I would still lean on the Heat and their top-tier defense.

Man, we gotta feel bad for the Reds and their fans. The Reds are so back that the Pirates are getting steamed and they are on the fucking road. Reds opened at -110 at Betonline and the line moved to -121 for the Pirates with Brubaker pitching with a 6.20 ERA. Votto is on the covid 19 list and won't play and on paper, the Pirates have great young hitting that can absolutely outperform the worst OPS team in baseball. I know it feels like a square move but I do agree with the sharps here. Unfortunately, my MLB model doesn't agree. We have close to + 14% EV on the Reds. Just like the Marlins and Padres tonight (Thursday) Ill sit this one out and take some notes.

UPDATE:

My MLB model likes the Reds however I can't do it. Toronto and Houston moved overnight but I don't have interest in any of those games. In PHI, ARI, CLE and HOU we have sharps on both sides of the total however the liability on the under pushed the books to drop the totals by half a run. Below you will find a picture of my MLB model. Find me in our Discord and don't be shy to ask me any questions.