Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 5, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Review to follow: Wild over 6, 76ers +9, Marlins

In the NHL playoff, it's kinda easy of to notice sharp better patterns. We know they liked the Avs and Rangers in game one and the same thing is happening in game 2. Game 1 at Madison Garden was one hell of a game and after each period I had a different team that deserved to win the game. The Rangers should have won in the 1st OT but the Pens hung in there with their 3rd string goalie. We are not sure of Desmith's condition however the sharps started slamming the Rangers this morning pushing the line from -135 to -155 and this is with 55% of the handle on the Pens. My numbers have the Rangers at -149 with Domigue in nets and the current like makes sense is Desmith is out. If he plays the line will drop by about 7-8%.

I won't bother getting into details with the Avs game. They are -375 favourites and the line opened at -350 at Betonline. Some books posted lines over -400. If the Preds get the win 1 game it will be a miracle but I wouldn't count them out and they might steal one but at home not on the road.

DAY OFF tomorrow in the NBA!

Small slate in baseball and the bet limits are still very low hence not much movement. I haven't received my report yet however we see some movement on the Angels with Ohtani pitching. In San Diego, the total dropped from 7.5 to 7 and Tampa jumped 17 pts from -110 to -127 in Seattle. Seattle is back from a 9 game road trip in which they only won one game. Prior to that, they were 7-2 at home. Their offense really stank in Houston. TB is rolling scoring 19 runs in their last 3 games and sweeping the A's. Both teams do well versus LPH and have wRC+s of over 120 versus LHP. My model has this game at -101 so there is value on Seattle but oh man they've looked terrible on the road but elite at home.

UPDATE MLB:

Other games in the MLB that we've seen movement are the Brewers. They continue to be popular versus this terrible Reds team. Market makers opened Milwaukee at -191 and the line is now -225 however we do have a set of sharps on the Reds at +185. Another game with heavy movement is the Phillies, from -130 to -160 but once again we see 2 sets of sharps and the ones on the Mets hit the line at +150.

Good luck today

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