Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 4, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Colorado had a 5-0 lead after the first and the over 6.5 had a 99% chance of hitting. Well, it did. The Giants didn't get a dominating performance by Rodon and lost 3-1. The sharps went 1-1.

We have 2 games in the NHL where sharps took some interest. One of them is the Over in Minnesota. The Blues blanked the Wild in game 1 however the Wild dominated puck possession with a crazy 72% CF and had 3 times more HDCF than the Blues. Just take a look at the gameflow and heatmap at Naturalstattrick.com. Husson was great and stopped 37 SOG. I doubt the Wild will be SO again and rarely can a team win with a CF of 28%. My model has this game at 6.45 and there is a small value on the over. I agree with the sharps here and I expect this game to go over also.

Depending on what market maker you ask, the Leafs did get some interest but it looks to be square money more than anything. At Betonline, they opened the game at -117 and Tuesday morning and by dinner time it was at -130. 96% of the handle is on the Leafs.

The battle in the NBA continues and we have 3 picks that the sharps absolutely love. I don't agree with one of them and that's the one I want to cover. Sharps took a stand on the 76ers at +9 pushing the line down to +8. We have no sharps at the book on the Heat's side. Embiid is still out and there isn't much to write about Jordan. The 76ers shot 43% from the field but were very weak from the outside barely hitting 6 3's in the game. Miami's defensive play played up to its standard and I don't see things getting better for the 76ers. I do have some concerns for the Heat and 8 pts is a lot to cover but the 76ers looked lost without their big man and I don't think Harden has what it takes to carry this team that has been poor on the road ATS.

The first game of the day in MLB received lots of interest overnight. The Marlins got steamed from -130 to -153 and the last move was early this morning. The Marlins will be looking to avoid a sweep from the Dbacks who have yet to be a favourite in the first 25 games of the season. My MLB model disagrees with the sharp interest and there is close to 10% EV on Arizona. Arizona is also featured on the sharp report being one of the best top model plays. On the mount, the Marlins will have their worst pitcher in Hernandez (ERA close to 6) and Arizona has a rejuvenated Bumbarder with his ERA of 1.20. He pitched 20 innings in his last 4 games, averaging under 4 hits per game and only allowed 2 ERs. Arizona showed that he can hit thru the Marlin's best pitchers and I just don't get the sharp interest in the Marlins today.

Good luck today

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