Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 31, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: Texas Rangers

A much-anticipated series begins between Colorado and Edmonton. The Avs are much better than what we've seen versus the Blues. Kuemper wasn't that great, Makar didn't get to flash his offensive skills, Rantanen had 1 goal and it was an empty netter. As for Nate, remove that big game 5 he had and he didn't have much more to show. I guess the game plan wasn't to go out and blow out the Blues and O'Neil did a great job checking that COL1 line and we should definitely give the BLues some credit. The Oilers surprised many by beating the Flames in 5. Sutter got outcoached imo, Markstrom was bad and the Flames big guns disappeared after the 1st game. I also feel that Edmonton won their Stanley Cup by beating the Flames and making it to the second round. I expect the Avs to win in 6. In terms of sharp money at the book, we have sharps on both sides and total. The max bet limits are 1/3 opened at about 10k. The line opened on May 28th and we saw some sharp money on Edmonton at around +160 and the over 6.5 which was followed by sharp money on the Avs at about -165 and under 7. The favourite is 6-0 L6 and the home team is 5-1 last 6. The Oilers will have a hard time containing Makar and I also believe he can be the MVP of this series. I'm all in on the Avs to win this series and game 1.

In baseball, we have the Yankees under 9 that got steamed by the sharp money this evening. The total is still at 9 at many books but it will 100% drop late tonight or overnight globally. My model has this game at 9.9 runs and it doesn't agree with the sharp money. For this total to stay under Noah needs to pitch a gem like last game and needs to go deep since the Angels bullpen took a beating versus the Jays. The Yankees lineup hasn't been as dangerous with the injuries to Stanton and Donaldson and they have had issues with their bullpen missing 3 key relievers. Ohtani and Trout have been hot however the whole team hits better at home while the Yankees have a shitty BA at home but they love to smash the ball outside of their ballpark. The over is 5-0-2 in LA's last 7 road games versus LHP but the under is 4-0 in LA's last 4 games following a day off. I will update my model in the afternoon once we have a better idea of the lineups but I might just go ahead and support my model projection and the over. It's model vs sharps!

Good luck today

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