Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 3, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The Canes made a statement yesterday in a dominant win versus the Bruins and the sharps were right about them. The WhiteSox under was another game they were right. VIPs were on the Whitesox straight up and that was a win also. The Mavs didn't cover but it was close.

We have 4 games on Tuesday and 3 of them have moneylines over -200. The Avs jumped about 30 pts with the news that Saros won't be playing for at least the first 2 games but that wasn't sharp money pushing the line it was the books doing a minor adjustment. We have yet to see the sharps take a major position at the book on any of the games. The only game with some interest is the Over 6.5 in Colorado. Rittich has been terrible this year and has a save % of under .890 and a GAA of 3.57 for the season. The Avs score over 4 goals per game on home ice and own the 7th best PP overall. The Preds can also do some damage on the PP but Kuemper has better solid all season long and he can shut the door at any time. In their last 4 h2h games, they averaged 8.25 goals per game with the Avs firing close to a 30% PP while the Preds were terrible on the PK. I am not a fan of betting overs in the playoffs and my model has this game at 6.67 goals therefore ill just sit back and enjoy the game.

UPDATE NHL: This info doesn't come from my book however sharps in other offshore and US markets have been on the Flames under 6. The total adjusted at 5.5. I have this total at 5.75 therefore no value.

In the NBA it will be interesting to see how the Celtics bounce back from losing game 1. The lines and totals are tight and we have barely seen any movement. The Celtics moved from -4 to -4.5 and we have 2 different sets of sharps on this game. A set of sharps took position on the under 215.5 but no movement. The book feels really comfortable with the current number however have yet to open the max bet limits therefore it is possible that the sharps are just being patient. Just to give you guys an example, you can bet close to 33k in the Phoenix game but the max bet on the Celtics is capped at 3k. I will update the NBA in the morning or afternoon if there are any developments overnight.

UPDATE NBA: A different set of sharps are on the over in the Celtics game. We didn't have much movement overnight. The Warriors are moving between -1.5 and -2. Both games have max bet limits of 11.5k (versus 3k last night) and I don't anticipate much movement for the rest of the day.

We have a doubleheader between the Mets and Braves however no lines are available yet. Also, no line is available in the Marlins and the A's games. The sharps are liking a couple of underdogs on Tuesday. The Giants are being of them. Opened at +140 and down to +125. Two top offenses will square off in a matchup where the pitchers should steal the show. Rodon's numbers are outstanding with an ERA of 1.17 and a WHIP of 0.83 while Urinas upside is lower he hasn't allowed over 1 run in his last 3 starts. The second underdog is the Rangers. They opened at +160 and sharp interest pushed the line down to +140. Not sure how I feel about this one. My MLN model is showing a negative EV on the Rangers at +140 with Gray being their starter. The Rangers took 2 of 3 games versus the Braves in their last series and this can be a little overaction on some short-term success. I like the Phillies at home, they rank 6th in runs/9 and the Rangers don't usually do well in Philadelphia but they've had some success vs lefties this season with a wRC+ of 126 ranking them 8th versus lefties this season. I'll sit this one out.

UPDATE MLB: The sharp report has 4 games as of this morning. Scroll back up and redeem your month free to see the rest of the plays.

Good luck today

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