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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 27, 2022

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: Sharps were wrong in on the Flames but many are saying they got robbed but it's the final score that matters. On a late update, they were right on the under in Carolina. They were also right on the under in Oakland

In the only game tonight, the sharps are liking the over 6.5 in St Louis tonight. The total and juice have been stable and 64% of the handle is on the under. My NHL has this total at 6.41 and there is not much value. In the last 3 games, they have scored 25 goals and only 3 of them have been on the powerplay. High danger scoring chances have been through the roof and we all know Husson has been terrible in the playoffs. Kuemper looked bad last game and it can be a one-off or maybe fatigue is kicking in. I'll support the over in this game.

Will the Celtics close the series tonight? The sharps are on the under 201.5 and this is the lowest total we have seen in this series so far. The Heat scored 80 and 82 points in their last 2 games and the Celtics have done a great job limiting the Heat to 32% and 33% from the field. I can't see the Heat do any better tonight in Boston. Actually, I expect them to do worst! Right? How can that be? Well, Lowry is probable and he's been a liability more than anything else since he's not at 100%. I believe many think that the Heat have a ton of positive regression coming their way, especially from 3 pt shooting. Oddsmakers don't think so and opened the Celtics a -9 fav. My line is more around -6 based on my power rankings but my short-term model shows a ceiling at -11.

The sharp report has 4 plays in MLB 3 of them are unders. The game we will focus on is an underdog. The Braves are really missing Freeman and it shows. Sharps don't really give a shit and love the Marlins tonight. Olson is great but batting under .250 this season isn't what the Braves expected. Also, the Braves are missing Acuna and Ozuna while the pitching staff has had their share of issues. Both pitchers tonight have been somewhat disappointing this year. My model is showing value on the Braves even with all the injuries and I don't really agree with the sharp money here. Braves have been playing better than the Marlins and I prefer betting on Anderson instead of a Rogers allowing a shit load of hard contact and HRs. his HR/FB rate is 3 times higher than last year after pitching close to 40 innings this year.

Good luck today

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