Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 26, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: Only one game was featured and it was the Padres under 7.5. That was an easy win for the sharps.

Seems like the Rangers / Canes series will be another homer series. The Canes can't win on the road and look weak and lost. The line moved 10 pts in their favour however there is no sign of sharp money at the book. In the other game, the Flames are facing elimination and the sharps have hit the Flames at -140 late this evening and pushed the line to -150. My model has the Flames at -131 and there is value on the Oilers therefore I don't agree with the sharps. Also, seems that the Flames defense has no answer for McDavid and Kane. The problem goes beyond that where Leon and Hyman are also making some damage. Add to that Markstrom that looks like he lost his mojo, I would rather take the value on the Oilers.

UPDATE: We have sharp money on the under 5.5 in Carolina. You will have to pay up to 40 pts to get the 5.5. Most books have adjusted their total at 5. The under is the way to go in that series. I've been saying it since the beginning.

The Warriors did it again. Instead of closing the series on the road they lost. Game 5 is at home and they are 7 pt favourites while the sharps are on the Mavs at +8 in the US markets and at +7.5 in the offshore markets. This pushed the line down to -7 with 53% of the handle on the Warriors. Betting limits are 1/3 opened at 10k and we might see more movement overnight. For the number to stay close the Mavs will need more scoring from their bench just like in game 4 but they haven't shown us any consistency, therefore, it's hard for me to support the Mavs on the road.

More to come from for the NBA, NHL and MLB

In baseball, we have some shitty weather in CIN, DET and ATL. More games can have issues throughout the day so keep an eye on that. The sharp report is showing 3 games where the sharps jumped on overnight. All 3 are totals. One of the games is the under in Oakland. The under 7 was hit overnight and should be dropping to 6.5 anytime now. Oakland is middle of the pack versus LHP however they have a BA of under .230, have slammed only 3 HR vs LHP and have a K% of 24%. Perez should handle them with ease with his 1.64 ERA and WHIP of almost under 1. Montas has been decent and just had a monster game with 12 K's versus the Angels. The Rangers have the 4th worst BA and wRC+ versus RHP. My MLB model has this total at 6.81 and the under makes lots of sense in this game where we really shouldn't see much offense.

Good luck today

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