Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 24, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: Lightning, Blues, Cubs

The Oilers and Flames face off for game 4 of this series and the Oilers must be feeling good after playing one of their best games in the playoffs on Sunday. The markets haven't really moved much yet but the bet limits are already at about 7k and the books are feeling good with the current line. We do have a couple of sharps at the book that jumped on the Oilers at -113 but as mentioned the line hasn't moved yet. My NHL model has the Oilers at -120 but I believe the Flames will tie the series on Tuesday night. The Flame's defense is unrecognizable in this second round. Apart from the top pairing, the rest have been terrible. The D has been so good during the regular season and I expect them to step it up in game 4. The same goes for Makstrom who has a save % of .852 in the second round. I'll be sitting this out but ill be watching for sure.

Pointbet VA opened the Mavs a 1 pt dog and it didn't take long for them to move the line to -1 which was the key opening number for market maker Betonline. At Fandual there was more drama. They opened Dallas at -1 ahead of market makers on May 22nd. The line moved from -1 to +1 to back to -1. That is clear evidence that the moment market makers opened the lines they adjusted. Sharps in the US markets are on the Mavs from +1 to -1. I have yet to see a sharp at the offshore book. There is a trend with the Warriors in this year's playoffs when playing in a game 5. They lose, go back home, win and eliminate their opponent. Dallas kept it closer in game 3 as they limited the Warriors to 46% from the field versus 56% in games 1 and 2. Many are betting on the Mavs and Luka not getting swept at home but I personally think the Warriors will close this series. They are just too strong and I dont expect a letdown in game 5 just like they did with Denver and Memphis.

In baseball, we have 2 games where the sharps jumped on early. The Brewer's moneyline and the Phillies over 7.5 were hit early. The total in Atlanta already moved to 8 however there is not much of a movement in San Diego. My MLB betting doesn't agree with the Brewer's interest and has a projected win probability of 50.5% (-102). As for the total, the model has a projected total of 9.24 and it does agree with the sharp interest. I don't like to bet against Fried but the Phillies are loving LHP's this year. Milwaukee has a decent edge in pitching this evening and Burnes has been solid on the road in his last 9 starts. Snell pitched 3.2 innings in his first start of the season and gave up 3 ER and SO 5. The Padres have lost 5 straight when Snell is on the mount and I get the sharp interest in this spot where the Brewers have lost 2 straight.

Good luck today

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