Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 23, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The Tampa Bay Lighting are trying to close their series tonight and get some well-deserved rest. The Blues are our for vengeance after Kadri injured Binnington. I believe we all expect the Celtics to tie up the series and then we have some baseball.

Early reports in the NHL show little sharp interest in the Lightning and Blues. My model is showing value on both teams but it will be hard to trust Husson's numbers so far in the playoffs. There is an aspect of the game that we cannot handicap and it's anger. The Blues lost netminder Binnington in a collision with Kadri. It wasn't a dirty hit. The game moves so fast that there's so much a player can do to avoid these types of incidents. Now, I am not one to defend Kadri because he's usually an A$$hole and a dirty player but in this case, I can't really blame him. Colorado will be missing Girard and he's been a big part of the Avs defensive core. As I said after game 2 in Florida, the Panthers are done. Do I agree with the Lightning sharp interest? Yes. Do I believe the Panthers won't want to get swept? Yes. If Vasilevskiy takes the day off since they played yesterday I would support the Panthers, if not, as I said... the Panthers are done and I am very disappointed.

In the NBA we are going in game 4 with Lowry, Butler, Herro and Tucker all questionable. Butler said he will play in game 4 but no confirmation yet. At this point, the Heat would be better without Lowry who's been awful. As for the Celtics, Williams and Smart are questionable. We have two sets of sharps interested in this game however the Heat supporter's handle is higher than the Celtics. Boston opened a 7 pt favourite and the line adjusted to -6 this morning. I wouldn't bet on this game until we have a better idea of who's playing and who's not however the Celtics have been the better team and my lean would be for them to cover the 6 pts.

The sharp report is showing 4 sides and not totals. This is weird since the sharps have been attacking totals way more than the sides. One of the games the sharps are on is the Cubs. Interest on the Cubs and Smyly came in at -115 and pushed the line to -125 with 65% of the handle on them. Smyly has great numbers vs the Reds while Gutierrez game over 20 runs in his last 4 starts. The Cubs had a feel-good win yesterday with that comeback that avoided a sweep from Arizona. While I support the sharp interest tonight my model doesn't agree and shows +12% EV on the Reds. Which side are you on?

Good luck today

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