Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 2, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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It's time to get ready for some playoff drama. Both the NHL and NBA are in the playoffs and the drama is in full swing in the MLB. The NBA is in the second round of the playoff while the NHL first round is starting on Monday.

We have 4 playoff games on Monday and the sharp money is scarce. The only sharp interest is in the Canes. My model has this game at -154 with Andersen however he should be out until mid-May. With Raanta the line drops to -125 but market makers opened the game at -110 and sharps jumped on that number. 80% of the handle is on the Canes and for a good reason. The Canes come into this series hot. I give them an edge on offense, defense and special teams. I agree with the sharps here and I believe the Canes will take this series in 6 games.

Even with limited movement and as per the sharp report, the sharps were on the over in the Warriors game and the under in the Celtics game on Sunday. The same story for Monday, there is not much movement and the only game the sharps have targeted early on is on the Mavs at +6. My model also has this game at +6 therefore there is no value at the moment. It looks enticing to take the points here however the Suns have completely dominated the Mavs in the last 10 games and I'd like to see the Mavs' defensive strategy before betting on them. The Suns are healthy and I expect the Mavs to have a hard time containing the Suns' offense in this series.

A small 8-game slate in baseball on Monday and sharps continue to target totals instead of sides. We have already seen movement on 3 unders (MIA-CHW-BAL) but the one under that sharps really went heavy on is in the WhiteSox game. I don't agree with it. My model has his game at 8.79 therefore we will find value on the over at 7.5. I rarely play an under when the WhiteSox are facing a leftie. Sandoval did not allow an earned run in the first 3 games of the season and pitched a season-high 7 innings versus Cleveland and had 9 K's. All that said, it's not sustainable and there is a risk that WhiteSox can smash him. Cease has a ton of potential however he's been terrible versus the Angels with an ERA of close to 7 and a WHIP just shy of 2. I like the Angels offense on the road and they average close to 6 runs per game on the road this year. I prefer the over in this game and disagree with the sharps.

Good luck today

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