Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 19, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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The under in Carolina was an easy one. As mentioned many times throughout the day, when 2 top defenses match up, we should not be expecting too many goals no matter what happened in the previous series. Sharps were wrong about the over in San Diego.

We have 2 games in the NHL today and I will be interested in the Florida game. One, I have money on the series, two I want to see how they bounce back from game 1. The sharps have one interest in this game, the Over 6.5. 85% of the handle is on the over supported by 70% of the tickets. Vasilevskiy looked like his old self and that is never good for the over. Both offenses can score a ton and the over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in Florida. My NHL model has this game at 6.67 so there is a small lean on the over.

In the NBA the sharp report is showing 2 possible plays. One of them is over 205.5 in Miami. I've posted that play 2 days ago and it still stands since there is no sharp money coming on the under. The total moved to 208 since then. We had a VIP pick on the under in game 1 and it was hard to watch. Well, Smart's and Horford's late news didn't help. Smart is probable for tonight, Horford was placed on the league's health and safety protocols and he's out indefinitely. My model has the game at 210 so there is not too much value. My 2 cents on this game, UNDER. Both teams have allowed the most points so far in playoffs in game 1 so this was an off game for both D's. Butler's 40+ points performance is not NOT expected again. I don't agree with the sharp interest.

We have a very small slate in baseball today however the sharp report is jammed with plays. Also, our MLB best model plays went 6-1 yesterday and 22-10 for May. If you don't have access to the sharp report what are you waiting for? Redeem your free month! The sharps at the book are on the Mariners today. My model doesn't show value on Seattle however the sharps slammed the +120 on low limits and pushed the line down to +108. It's hard to support the Mariner's offense this season since they are very inconsistent. They had a big win yesterday versus Gausman while the Jays bats were very disappointing. I also can't bet on Kirby who barely pitched 10 innings and will face a decent Red Sox offense ranked 7th in wRC+ in the last 7 days. I will be sitting this one out.


Good luck today

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