Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 18, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP TO FOLLOW: CELTICS UNDER 206.5 AND +1.5, RAYS UNDER 7

The NHL sharp report has had this game for almost 2 days now. The under 6 in Carolina was steamed in both US and offshore markets. Sugar house opened their total 6 hours after Betonline and for some odd reason, they posted a 6 instead of a 5.5. They basically had to adjust their total within the hour. My NHL model has this game at 5.49 and I agree with the sharp interest in the under. If you strictly base yourself on the way both teams played and score in their first round, betting they under would be crazy right? I'll most probably stay away from this game however, I would assume the Rangers will 1) adjust their defensive strategy and allow fewer shots on goal and 2) close the neutral ice with heavy checking. Also just a reminder, these teams have the #1 and #2 best defensive in the league this season.

In the NBA, the data is all over the place. We have sharps on both sides and total. Some of the most respected sharps at the book are on the Mavs at +5.5. There is lots of square money on the Warriors, especially at -5.5. My model has the game at -3 for the Warriors and they are most rested. Once again I will sit this one out and for good reasons. When these 2 teams meet it's a shit show. The ATS margins are ridiculous. Six of the last 10 games have ATS margins of 20+ pts. Let's see what happens in game 1 before betting on this series.

UPDATE MLB:

The sharp report has 4 MLB games that the sharps tackled overnight but I dont like any of them. Most of them are underdogs and my model doesn't show much value. There is a total the sharps like and I'm not against it. The total in San Diego opened at 8 and dropped to 7.5 at a market maker. That trigged sharp money on the over 7.5 at the book I get my info from. My MLB model has this game at 8.25 with 8% EV. Both teams are on fire and scoring over 5.5 per game in their last 7 and the Padre's over is 14-2 in the last 16 road games versus a team with a losing record.


Good luck today

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