Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 14 , 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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A night with no NBA will make us some good! The weather is gorgeous and we will have more time to spend in the pool and downing a few cold ones. Our VIP member TH3ALLAMERICAN is so excited that he even mentioned his wife's buns. He's got a couple of parlays going and the guys are pretty involved in our picks-members channel in discord.

So what is more exciting than buns??? Three freaking games 7's in 1 day!!!! Which Oilers team will show up tomorrow? Will the Lighting's massive playoff experience trump the Leaf's hunger to finally win a series? Will the Cane's home dominance vs the Bruins continue??

In terms of sharp money as of late Friday night, only the under 6.5 in Edmonton was steamed. I don't agree and I like the over. After every under there's an over in this series. The over is 6-3 L9 when the Kings are playing in Edmonton and last game we saw a tired Kings that only shot 32 times while their average has been in the mid-'40s in the 3 prior games. This is a game that Edmonton cannot lose and Connor and Leon will be ready for this game 7.

In the other games, we don't have much going and I haven't seen any sharps take a position on a side or total. I will provide an update in the morning.

In baseball, we are still missing lines in 4 games plus many retail books haven't posted their line yet. This usually happens when the max bet limits are still very low at market makers. However, there is one game that the sharps love and it's the A's. Oakland opened a +125 underdog and the line dropped to +105 with the sharp money coming in. 66% of the tickets are support Lorenzen and the Angels and my model has them at -143. It's obvious to say that my model is not agreeing with the sharp interest. The A's are hot and they will have their ace on the mount. Blackburn has been great with his 4-0, 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Some impressive numbers. His xERA is at 2.88 so it's not like he's been getting lucky, he's been SOLID. The A's are dead last in wRC+ vs RHP this season and their home splits and the record is pushing Angel's win probability to 59% in this game. However, Lorenzen struggled last game and more regression is due based on his BABIP. Lastly, Oakland did take 4 of 5 games in Detroit but they haven't been hitting the ball well last 7 days with a batting avg of .193, .072 ISO, WOBA of under .240 and wRC+ of 64. AND IMAGINE... the Tigers have the worst numbers! The Angel's numbers are much much better and lead in wRC+ in the last 7 days mostly thanks to TB and the 25 runs they gave up. So it comes down to Blackburn basically. It's another showdown between sharps and the model!!

Good luck today

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