Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps May 10 , 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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Recap to come: Pens, Celtics, Rays and A's

I'm starting to write as the Rangers are losing 6-2 after 2 periods. It's nauseating that this team just forgot how to defend. Even worst is Shesterkin, unless he's injured and we are not aware of it makes no sense that the best GSAA (by far) is not capable of stopping pucks anymore.

For Tuesday, the sharps have been quiet in the NHL. Not much has happened and we will need to wait and see what happens overnight. Max bet limits are half way open but still, nothing is happening. The Oilers are back home after dominating games 2 and 3 just to be blanked in game 4. The lighting is 16-0 after losing a playoff game, meaning they haven't lost 2 straight in the playoff since god knows when. That series is messy.... in 4 games we have 2 games where Tampa didn't show up and 2 games where Toronto was nowhere to be found... this is a huge game 5. IMO whoever wins this game wins the series. Minnesota is back home where they should take the lead in this series. They looked great in games 2-3 but the Blues clearly dominated them in game 4. The Canes looked like they were about the sweep the Bruins but it's somehow 2-2 in the series. Not sure I expect much from the sharps overnight. FFS I don't even know where to begin in trying to find an edge in all 4 series.

Doesn't get easier in the NBA. We have 2 sets of sharps on the 76ers / Heat game. One set was on the 76ers at +3.5 and the other set on the Heat at -3. Some US books are getting a high handle on the Heat and we are seeing the same thing in offshore books however these offshore books did adjust the line to -3 (from -3.5) confirming some big bets on the 76ers. The momentum is on the 76ers since Embiid is back and the Heat has looked terrible inside and outside with poor 3pt S% and FG%.

In a game where it should be played close to the line, we have a ton of square money on the Suns but just like in Miami we have 2 sets of sharps in this game as well. Some books pushed the Suns as high as -6.5 and that line steamed everywhere. Basically, one set of sharps dropped the hammer on the -5.5 and the other on the +6.5. The Mavs looked phenomenal in Dallas but this should be a whole different story back in Phoenix. We can all except Paul and company to come out strong in game 5 and as mentioned it should stay close to spread. The Suns have been a dominant force at home this season but are only 23-23 ATS this year.

MLB is quiet and we have 2 games where the sharps like the under. I will update MLB, NHL and NBA in the morning.

UPDATE MLB:

The Marlins are getting steamed early on. Betonline opened them at -122 and some books have them as high as -145. Bumgarmer is on the mount and he got tosses last outing by an idiot who doesn't know how to manage a game. Houston is another team sharps are on early on and they moved from -120 to -146. My MLB model will show value on the Dbacks and we should expect the same with the Tigers. I like the Tigers at home with Ryan pitching. It will be a great pitching dual for sure and I give the Tigers the edge offensively ranked 4th in wRC+ L14 days. I don't agree with the sharp money on the Astros!

Good luck today

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