Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 8, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

It was another decent night for the sharp in the Overnight Grid. The Flames took care of the Oilers and a hard-fought game. The over was kinda easy in Columbus. In the NBA, my model was strong on the Spurs however the sharps didn't agree. When James was announced out it made the Spurs the best play based on my projections.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS

Vegas got Max back last game and he's obviously going to be a boost for the Knights offense that is way below their scoring mean and powerplay efficiency. The Flyers offense has not been a threat all year and they are barely averaging 2.2 GF/G in their last 5. Vegas is coming in Philly with the 4th best defensive on the road and the 7th best CF/60. Vegas is 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road favourite and this is a solid spot for them to continue their 2 game winning streak. When it comes to the Flyers and Devils this season, it seems the book is completely lost in pricing them. Market makers opened Vegas a -145 favourite yesterday morning on low max bet limits. Midway thru the day sharps hit the max limits on Vegas pushing the line to -180. Vegas owns 87% of the handle this morning. My NHL model is showing value on the Flyers and thinks Vegas is inflated. I personally want to see more from Vegas before adjusting their rankings. I'm staying away from this game.

OTTAWA SENATORS

Yes, we welcome a big dog in the Overnight Gring. Ottawa is also featured on the Sharp report this morning. The Sens are 2-7-1 in their last 10 and while the Blues are 6-2-2, they have lost 3 straight to Jersey, Islanders and Rangers. They took 21 shots on Jersey and that was an all-time low for the season. Normally, this would be a lopsided game and I still think it will be, however the sharp felt that the Blues were getting too much respect when the line opened. Betonline opened the Blues a -325 favourite yesterday morning, and the first set of sharps slammed the +284 and the second set of sharps slammed the +242 last night and this morning. Binnington is projected and the sharp must like that also. He has been good enough this season. Murray is projected for the Sens however that is incorrect since he was placed on the injury reserve list yesterday. My Model has the Blues a -229 favourite and the sharp interest makes absolute sense and it's a decent spot catching the Blues in a slump.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS

The Hornets are the best value play in my NBA model. I have them projected at -3.5 while we were getting 5 pts at the opening. You have guessed it, the line is moving towards the Hornets. Market makers opened the Nets at -5 and sharps took the hornets at +5 dropping the line at +3.5. 5dimes was confused on how to price this game, they opened at -2.5 for the Nets and adjusted to -3.5. The Nets hold close to 85% of the handle but this line has been beaten up at the books. From -5 to -2.5, back up to -4.5, back down to -3.5. Why all that movement if 85% of the handle is on the Nets? Well, 85% if from the book I have access to, there are other sharp books out there and their line movement will affect other sharp books. Meanwhile, retail books are having a coffee and waiting for the line to settle and have the sharp books open their max limits. When that happens, most of the time the retail book will open the game. My issue here is which Hornets team will show up? The ones who just won back-to-back games are the ones that lost 11 of their last 15?

Good luck today

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