Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 7, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

AND let's get ready for another crazy week in betting. March Madness is around the corner and I can't wait. The sharps had a mixed weekend. It was a strong Saturday for them followed by a bad Sunday.

CALGARY FLAMES

All the favourites have been affected with line changes overnight however the most interesting one was in the battle of Alberta. My Habs took care of both these teams in the last couple of days and the Flames responded with a HUGE win in Colorado. The Oilers are still trying to find answers after allowing 3 short-handed goals to Montreal and there is much controversy about Mike Smith and his future with the Oilers. Koskinen is projected to start and his splits aren't terrible vs Calgary however still allows over 3 goals per game in his 10 career starts vs Flames. Edmonton lost 3 of their last 4 while the Flames are 3-1 beating the Wild twice, the Avs and laying an egg vs Montreal. Calgary has the #1 defense and PK at home this season however in their last 2 they have allowed powerplay goals in back-to-back games. The Oilers special teams looked terrible versus the Habs and their PP is at 15.79% in their last 5. Market makers opened the Flames a -150 favourites which is way off from my -186 projection. Sharps were consistent on slamming the Flames up to -180. The line is now -205 and there is no value on this game. Keep in mind this is a strong rivalry and the Oilers are 7-3 vs the Flames in their last 10 game. I would expect a tight game.

TORONTO VS COLUMBUS OVER

Both offenses have been on fire. The struggling Leafs have averaged 4.60 GF/G and the Blue Jackets 3.60 GF/G. The Leafs defense took a hit since Muzzin got injured and has allowed 4.4 GA/G in their last 5 and the goalies have struggled with a combined SV% of 0.859. Columbus has a bottom-tier defense for the year and has allowed .30 GA/G more than their 3.32 GA/G season average and has allowed powerplay goals in almost all of their last 5 games. Toronto has the second-best road power play in the league however have been terrible lately scoring only 1 powerplay goal in their last 8 games. From here we can only expect positive regression from the Leafs and keep in mind that Columbus allows the most SOG in the league at about 36 per game. If the Leafs powerplay starts clicking again this game can quickly go over. Market makers opened the total at 6.5-109 yesterday morning and increased the juice to -145 overnight with 75% of the handle on the over. This morning they finally moved the total to 7u-116 and the handle started moving towards the under and currently at 7u-126. I have this game set at 6.62 goals.

LA LAKERS

I hate when this happens but it does. I'll explain. My NBA betting model has the Spurs a 6 pt favourite while Betonline opened the game at -4. We have value on the Spurs. I was expecting this line to keep on moving towards my model projections (like most of the time) instead a strong set of sharps took a position on the Lakers last night and early this morning forcing the books to adjust the line to -2. Bet limits are halfway opened for this game the Lakers now own 65% of the handle. King James had a 56 point performance versus Golden State however I don't think this has anything to do with the move! More so, both teams have been terrible defensively this year however it's hard not to notice how terrible the Spurs have been in their last 5 allowing close to 130 points per game. The Lakers have not won 2 straight games in over a month, I can feel the momentum switching and I can see the Lakers taking advantage of the Spurs poor defensive play. My model doesn't agree however I'm ready to support the sharps in this situation.

Good luck today

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