Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 30, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Rangers have done it again. From end to start they dominated once again in puck possession with a CF% of 55%. Val had them in the VIP discord and they were worth the value after all. The sharps were right on the over Philadelphia, the total moved from 226.5 to 232 and they scored 234 pts. The Stars are still playing and it's 0-0 in the 1st period.

WINNIPEG JETS

The Sabres are a pain in the ass. I hate to bet against them. They are 4-2 in their last 6 games and in their 2 losses it gave you heartburn if you had the Rangers or the Capitals since both teams needed overtime to win. Both teams have been scoring as of late however the Sabres have allowed close to 4 GA/G in their last 5. They also give up way too many shots and high danger chances. The Jets are barely a .500 team on the road and their scoring dorps of about - .70 GF less than when playing at home. The Sabres are 3-1-1 in their last 5 at home however should be dealing with fatigue playing their 3 games in 4 nights. Market makers opened the Jets a -130 favourite Tuesday morning and sharps jumped on it and steamed the line up to -163. There was a little buyback in the evening and the line settled at -158. My NHL model has this game closer to a pickem and we have +16.5% EV on the Sabres. I believe this game will be closer than most people think, making the Sabres a great team to add in your parlays and even in DFS.

VANCOUVER

Here we go again. Round 2 between St Louis and Vancouver. They played 2 days ago and the Blues dominated them except in the SOG department where Husso had to make over 35 saves. Canucks fans don't worry, Denko is already confirmed. As for St Louis, reports are stating that Binnington should start. That is for sure a boost for Vancouver but they will need to be careful versus a very sneaky road team, especially when playing versus a team from the west. The Blues are 24-8-5 overall vs the West, 11-4-2 on the road, have the 3rd best offense on the road and hold the #1 powerplay on the road. The Canucks can shut down St Louis at home and exploit Binnington if he starts, the Blues, prior to their last game were allowing close to 4 GA/G. I personally posted a VIP bet on the under because I believe Husso will start. There is no reason to start Binni since they are not playing the day after. My model has this game at pickem basically, -102. Betonline opened the Blues as a -128 favourite this morning and Vancouver instantly received sharp interest and the line moved to -110 for Vancouver. If and when Husson gets confirmed the money will shift the other way and we will see something similar to the last game. BONUS: The under is 19-5-2 in the last 26 meetings in Vancouver and 25-11-5 in the last 41 meetings overall. VIP PICK: Under 6 under the assumption that Husson and Demko start.


In the NBA it's a huge slate. There is much happening and I'm still waiting for my NBA update from the book. Currently, I see the Hornets getting some love, same for the under. The over in Toronto is on the go and money started coming in on Miami earlier this evening (Tuesday night) and it will be important to monitor injuries for the Celtics. The Pelicans jumped 3 pts since this afternoon and it looks like it's moving towards -13.5 and /or -14. I will update the NBA early in the morning when I get more data.

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

Damn, 14 points road favourite for a team playing 9 games under .500 and a 14-22 record on the road this season. In the last 10 games, Portland has been losing games by a 14 pt margin and they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games. Also, when Portland is an underdog between 12.5 and 14.5 pts they are 1-3 ATS this year. Every game is important for the Pelicans if they want to take part in the playoffs, they won 3 of their last 5, 4-1 ATS and 11-2 ATS last 13 road games. Injuries have completely dismantled Portland and the last time they played the Pelicans it was in New Orleans and they were a 1 pt dog, they still lost by 14. Portland lost 3 of their last 4 games at home by 17, 19 and 37 pts and 2 of those 3 losses were against Houston FFS. The sharps expect a blow-out in this game and pumped the line progressively from -10 to -14 early this morning. The max bet limits are open halfway thru and 78% of the handle is on the Pelicans. My NBA model expects a closer game and has the Pelicans at -8 opening some value for Portland. I can see this game being a blowout with a back door cover just to piss us off.


Good luck today

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