Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 29, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The sharps we right on the Canes and I leaned on them also. The trends were pushing on the Caps however the sharps prevailed. The sharps expected a Demko vs Binny match up instead they got Halak and Husso. My model was strong on the Blues and we locked them at -132 and smashed the closing line. Sharps were wrong about the Canucks last night. In the Raptors game, I knew something was fishy. This is where the sharps will always have an edge over regular joe's.... INFORMATION. The line massively started moving towards the Raptors and there was no information out there for regular joe's. The Celtics ended up missing 4 key players but still managed to cover the closing number.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

The sharps did not take time to smash the Pens yesterday morning. The line opened at -131 and jumped to -160 within the first hour and is now sitting at -172. Pittsburgh owns 58% of the handle and 55% of the tickets, the line movement clearly indicates heavy sharp interest in the Pens. Sidney and the gang will be looking at revenging their 5-1 loss just 4 days ago where Jarry had an unusually bad performance allowing 5 goals on only 21 shots against. Also unusual for the Pens, they were dominated in puck possession where the NY Rangers usually find themselves last in the league. This game has huge implications in the standings since both teams are basically tied and I will give the edge to the Pens due to their experience in important games and being on home ice. Taking a quick look at my NHL model, the Rangers are one of the top values on the board with a +15% EV with Shesterkin projected, Igor is one of the best this season and the Rangers always have a chance of winning when he's between the pipes. The line is inflated on the Pens but I won't be touching this game. BONUS: I really like the under if the total goes back to 6

DALLAS STARS

I've said it many times, I don't like the Stars on the road. The last time I wrote something similar they played one hell of a game in Carolina and I looked like an idiot. It seems that sharps are betting that Gibson will be between the pipes today and he's been awful. He's allowed 4 or more goals in 10 of his last 13 starts and he has an SV% of .886 in his last 10 games. This is a boost for a Stars offense that barely scores 2.39 goals per game on the road. The Ducks defense hasn't done a great job helping Gibson and have been allowing 4.20 GA/G since the end of the trade deadline. Also to note, a big part of their defensive meltdown is due to their poor inability to stop teams on the powerplay. Their PK is at 55.5% in their last 5 games and have allowed 6 goals in their last 5. The Stars opened a -145 favourite yesterday morning and the line jumped at -165 within the first 15 minutes on low bet limits. It also seems that squares are supporting this game and the tickets are currently at 88% on the Stars. Well, my model disagrees once again. Based on the Stars poor scoring efficiencies on the road it downgrades their win probability substantially. However, the Ducks poor sample size is small and the model doesn't put much weight on short-term results. The Ducks have a +13% EV however they are 1-9 when they are dogs of between +151 and +175. Once again ill be staying away from this game also.

MILWAUKEE / PHILADELPHIA OVER

This game should be a beauty. Giannis is probable and I would be surprised if he misses this one. He has a sore right knee but I'm sure the soreness will go away when battling versus Harden. Both players are projected for huge minutes tonight and that means lots of scoring. My only question is how efficient can the 76ers defense be versus the Bucks that are scoring close to 120 pts in their last 5 games. Milwaukee is 4th in-game tempo and 1st in OPL (average numbers of seconds per offensive possession) Let's not kid ourselves, Harden doesn't play D. The 76ers also get a boost in scoring versus a below-average defensive unit that is allowing 112 pts per game. 5Dimes opened the total at 226.5 and the sharp did their damage overnight and when bet limits opened early this morning. The books adjusted the total to 232.5 with 91% of the handle on the over. My NBA model has the projected at 231 and I also support the over.


Good luck today

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