Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 28, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

March Madness has been crazy this year and I hope you guys have enjoyed the games. I've been cursed in college ball this year and I'm glad the season is ending. MLB is around the corner and I can't wait.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

The Canes are in Washington to face the Caps on Monday evening and they will try and win 2 in a row for the first time since March 10th. The Caps have won their last 2 games however they struggled to dominate versus 2 bottom league teams and barely took 22 SOG in Jersey. Washington has allowed a minimum at 3GA/G in their last five and the over is 9-1 in their last 10. This is a bump for the Canes offense who's 11th in scoring on the road. The Canes haven't done well in Washington going 2-7 in their last 9 games however the sharps don't think to care. Market maker Betonline opened the Canes at -111 Sunday morning and sharp money instantly came in on Carolina and pushed the line to -130 on low max limits. My NHL model has the Canes at -112 and there is no value.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

The Blues lost Krug this week and Leddy will be slotting in for him however he's not the same calibre player. St Louis lost 4 of the last 5 games, is 1-5-1 in their last 7 games as a favourite and has allowed on average 4.4 GA/G in their last 5. This is terrible for a top 10 defensive unit. Binnington and Demko are projected tomorrow and the Canucks will have the edge between the pipes. The Canucks are trying to finish a 4 game road trip with a 3-1 record. They beat Colorado and Dallas while losing to Minnesota after putting up a great fight. Sharps have been behind the Canuck since the line opened. Market makers opened the Blues a -166 favourite and within the first 90 minutes there was a 30pts move in favour of the Canucks and the line dropped to -130. My model has the Blues are -170 and this might be an overaction to the Blues recent play nonetheless the Blues are 11 games over .500 at home, have the 4th best PP and should do some damage vs the Canucks worst league 32rd PK. We (model and I) don't agree with the sharps.

TORONTO RAPTORS

The Celtics have been on an incredible run and look unstoppable. #1 overall team defense, #1 away road defense, 12th in scoring on the road, 5th on the boards, beating opponents with a 15 pts differential however 26th in SOS (strength of schedule) I agree with the market makers pricing this game at -2.5 for the Celtics. My prediction was that this game was going to move a little up and land around -4. That is not what happened folks. The line opened around 430 pm on Sunday and by 9 pm the Raptors were at -1. 45min later at -3. 87% of the handle is on the Celtics and apart from Horford, I don't see anyone else scheduled to miss this game. Trend Jr is still a questionable case for Monday and I doubt he plays. Sharp like the Raports, my model says the line is right, my gut says Boston dominates therefore I'll sit this one back and enjoy the game.


Good luck today

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