Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 25, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The sharps had a decent day yesterday in the Overnight Grind. The Pelicans cruised passed the Bulls, Carolina surprisingly lost at home versus a bad Dallas road team and Phoenix took care of business in Denver. We don't have overwhelming slates in the NHL and NBA today but sharps already took their spots, let's check them out.

COLUMBUS / WINNIPEG

Whenever the Blue Jackets are playing we always have to expect a high-scoring game. They are before last in GA and dead last in SOG allowed. The over is 40-19-5 for Columbus this year while the Jets are 36-27-2. The Jets laid an egg vs Ottawa last night, the over is 5-3 on b2b games and they should be rolling with their backup goalie tonight. Columbus has a decent 22% PK in their last 5 games and can exploit the Jets PK that is doing terrible at 63% in their last 5 games yet the Blue Jackets defensive unit is terrible allowing 4.2 GA/G in their last 5 and they are just as bad on the PK with a 66% efficiency. The Jets looked terrible yesterday but we can discount their hot offense scoring 4.2 GF and getting a massive bump tonight. The total opened at 6 this morning and was bumped to 6.5 within the first 2 hours. My NHL model has the total projected at 6.87 and 70% of the handle is on the over. Both I and the model support the over in this game.

There is not much more to share in the NHL tonight. Juice is moving on the under 6 in New York, the Caps ML dropped a little, the Avs ML is stable for now and CGY's ML dropped 50pts but I don't see sharp interest at the book.

UTAH / CHARLOTTE UNDER

When I saw the sharps taking a position on the under I asked myself WTF are they doing. Utah is #1 in adj. Offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and Charlotte is 9th. The Jazz is 22nd in tempo while the Hornets are 4th and the Jazz gets a bump offensively versus a bottom-tier defense in Charlotte plus they will need to increase tempo which should lead to more scoring. Crunching the numbers a little further I can see how the 233 could have been perceived high in this game where both D's are allowing under 110 points against per game in their last 5. Trends are also in favour of the under especially for the Hornets where the under is 22-7-2 last 31 home games vs teams with a winning road record. Market makers opened the total at 233.5 yesterday late afternoon and sharps hit the under 233.5, 231.5 and 229. Currently at 228 and the handle at 50/50, seems the book got the number they wanted before opening their max bet limits. My NBA model has this game at 229 therefore I will support the under as well however most of the value is gone.

DETROIT PISTONS

The Pistons will be very popular tonight since they are playing a shitty Wizards team that is 12-24 on the road and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Pistons are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10, 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall and own 80% of the handle and tickets. The max bet limits are halfway open now that the number moved at -4. Betonline opened the Pistons a -2.5 favourite yesterday afternoon and sharps hit that number up to -4. Circa posted a -4.5 this morning and this line can keep on moving with square interest. My Model has the Pistons at -3.5 therefore not far off from the opening number. I believe in regression when a team is flying ATS however I think the Pistons get it done tonight and I expect a similar performance from the Wizard when they played in Houston 4 days ago.


Good luck today

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