Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 24, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Leafs and Devils scored 4 goals in the 2nd period but somehow this game ended 3-2 and the over didn't cash. I really liked Minnesota yesterday at home but the sharps were on the Suns, it was a great game and the sharps were right on the Suns. In Dallas, the game script went exactly how expected and the sharps were right once again and the under hit with ease.

NEW ORLEANS

By now we all know how bad the Bulls are on the road. They failed to cover in 7 of their last road games and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12. They got dominated vs the Bucs, Suns and Jazz. We expect more from a Bulls team that dominates in FG%, 3pt%. Can they break the streak tonight? They've had great success in New Orleans going 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games and if they want to continue building on this trend they need to be better offensively and defensively. You can't win games nowadays by scoring on average 105 pts per game unless you are the Mavs. The D is giving up on average close to 120 pts per game in their last 5 games while the Pelicans offense is about scoring that. Market makers opened the Bulls a -3.5 favourite yesterday afternoon. This game got no interest until the betting limits increased in the evening, at that point the sharps slammed the +3.5 forcing the book to drop the number to -1 for the Bulls. The visiting team is currently holding 70% of the handle. My NBA model has the Pelicans favourite by 2 pts therefore I support the sharp interest in the Pelicans. ***DEROZAN IS OUT SO BUMP FOR THE PELICANS***

CAROLINA

It's been very very quiet in the NHL today. This is the only game that stands out for now. It's not like this game received any interest from the get-go. The interest started coming in when Wedgewood was confirmed from the Stars. The home and away splits are ridiculous for the Stars. They are the worst in the league in terms of GF on the road. They are 21-8-1 at home while playing under .500 on the road. The Canes have the #1 defense in the league allowing almost under 2 GA/G while the Stars struggle in scoring putting up on average 2.38 GF/G. The Stars powerplay has been terrible last 10 road games ranking them the 4th worst which will face the best overall PK tonight! Wedgewood is not terrible but he's allowed close to 4 GA/G in his last 5 starts and he's probably in for a long night. Market makers opened the Canes at -175 and sharps steamed the line to -205 and -211. My model shows little value on the Stars based on their defensive play however I agree with the sharps here.

PHOENIX

Back to the NBA. There is no interest in the NHL tonight. Weird considering the size of the slate. We covered the Suns last night and we know how great they are but it's a b2b game and I really hate these spots because a team will get tired no matter what or will bench players or FFS not dress them at all. The Suns are 5-2 ATS this year on no rest and it doesn't look like they will be resting players tonight. The Nuggets opened a -3.5 at BOL this morning and squares pushed this line at -4. At that point, the sharps told everyone to move away and smashed the Suns. The line is currently at -1 for Denver however 85% of the handle is on the Suns while tickets are getting closer to 50/50. My model has the Suns has -3.5 and we can still find value in them therefore I once again agree with the sharps BUT I hate b2b games!

Good luck today

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