Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 23, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Things are back to normal this morning, for now. Sharps were pretty sharp last night. They nailed the Pens, Devils and Jets in the NHL. They were also right on the Hawks in the NBA while I didn't agree. A perfect 4-0.

NEW JERSEY / TORONTO OVER

There are only 4 games today and there is barely any sharp participation. We've seen a small interest on the over in Toronto. The total opened at 6.5u -110 and the over steamed up to 6.5o -130 but then back down to 6.5o -115 in this morning. The Devils road splits are much different than when at home where they have been competitive all year. The Devils D has allowed close to 5 GA per game in their last 5. We all know that Toronto can put up a ton of goals and they hope Gio can stabilize their defense because they've been going thru a shitty stretch. My NHL model has this total at 6.92 with Dawns and Kaagren starting and I also support the over in this game however with concerns about the Devils scoring splits on the road. A positive trend of the DEvils and the over, on b2b games the Devils over is 8-3 in the second game of a b2b.

PHOENIX

It's a small number to cover for one of the best teams on the road. The Suns are 28-6 SU and 21-13 ATS on the road. They haven't lost in 2 weeks on the road and basically dominate most of their opponents day in day out. This is a tough match-up for both teams. The Suns D will be tested versus this powerful offense while the TWolves offense will be tested once again vs a powerful defense. I say once again because in their last game against Dallas, which is 6th in aDRTG, they limited Minnesota to 108 points and under 40% FG efficiency. Minnesota beat 2 top ten Net rating teams (MIL & MIA) in their last 5 games. and they were dominant. Market makers opened the Suns a 1 pt underdog yesterday afternoon and overnight the sharps took their position on them forcing the book the adjust the line to -1.5. My NBA model has the Suns at -1 and the line moved accordingly to my projection. I believe the Suns are the better team but I can see Minnesota winning at home especially if they play as they did against Miami and Milwaukee.

HOUSTON / DALLAS UNDER

In the last game that the Mavs played, they neutralized the powerful Minnesota offense to 108 pts and maintained their #1 defensive rank when playing at home. Tonight they play versus the worst road offense and 27th worst team in points scored per 100 possession. Dallas's success is all about defense, they have the 4th worst offense at home scoring on average 107 per game regardless they should have a ton of success versus the worst defense in the league. The under in Dallas is 9-26-1 for the season and the sharps jumped on the under 231 when it opened at Betonline yesterday afternoon. The support is so strong on the under that even with a 50% handle on the under the book adjusted the number from 231 to 224. My NBA model has this total at 222 and the total moved accordingly. I support the under also however all the value is gone.

Good luck today

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