Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 21, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Happy Monday all! I hope you guys have enjoyed the games over the weekend. I don't know anybody that is happy with their bracket(s) including myself. Very hard to explain the performances and results of many top-seeded teams. Let's get ready for another crazy week. Last article we had the Jets, Nuggets and the over Brooklyn. We went 1-2.

MINNESOTA WILD

Just when things started to look positive for the Golden Knights, they lose yet another dman in Hague and potentially Eichel. They played well versus FLA and LA but they got good goaltending since they allowed close to 40 SOG in both games. They will want to keep that shot count down versus the Wild who is 3rd in overall scoring and 2nd in scoring at home putting up over 4 goals per game. Vegas has had their share of success against Minnesota going 7-2-1 in the last 10 games however Vegas doesn't even have half of the team that shared that success. Market makers opened the Wild a -124 favourite yesterday afternoon and that number got slammed to -160 by mid-afternoon. Based on the opening number, seems that I am not the only one having issues projecting the Golden Knights since my model has the Wild at -130 hence opening close to a +8% EV value on Vegas. I would side with the sharps over my model in this game.

LAKERS / CAVS OVER

This game is also featured on the last update of the sharp report. 5dimes opened the total at 222 late afternoon yesterday and most of the sharp interest came overnight when the book aggressively moved the total from 222 to 224 and early this morning to 227. The Lakers might have turned the corner with their poor scoring and field goal %. They put up 128 pts versus the Raptors and 119 vs the Wizards. They shot 49% and 52% from the field. James had 36 and 39 points in those 2 games. The Lakers are 6th in pace, their defense still ranks at the bottom of the league and the Cavs have played 4 straight overs mainly due to giving up more points than their mean lately. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Lakers just adds to all indications of a lot of scoring in this game. Of course, we need more drama today, my model has this game at 218 therefore there is value on the under regardless I'll side once again with the sharps here based on the short-term data supporting a high-scoring game.

UTAH

I hate playing b2b teams in NBA. Hell, I hate playing it in the NHL also. The Jazz is 4-7 on no rest and 4-6-1 ATS. Bogdanovic and Conley should be back for Utah and Durant should also be back for the Nets. Brooklyn is 4-1 in their last 5 and 3-2 ATS however 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home. Utah is 8-2 vs the Nets L10 and 7-3 ATS but 1-5 ATS in their last 6 on the road. Yesterday the Jazz were 5 pt favs until sharp money landed on the Knicks closing the line to -3.5. I ranked the Nets a little above the Knick. Seeing the Nets open at -1.5 yesterday kinda made sense factoring in that Utah played the night before. The line moved to -2 overnight and on mid max bet limits this morning the Nets shifted to +1.5 on overload sharp interest throughout many books. This move can be due to news that Bogdanovic and Conley will play tonight. I ran my NBA model with both of them playing and I have the Jazz at -2.5. My model sides with the sharp interest in the Jazz tonight.

Good luck today

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