Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 18, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Its been real madness on day one. How's your bracket doing? I can tell you that a couple of my brackets are already done. The Canes were disappointing last night and were not able to take care of the Leafs who were without their best player and facing a rookie goaltender. Sharps were wrong there. The Panthers were also a side that sharps liked and they were wrong also. The Oilers did what they had to do. Sharps win that one.

DENVER NUGGETS

We will start with some NBA today since there was only one game yesterday and there have been some early movements that are interesting. Betonline was very aggressive at pricing this game first and they made the Cavs a 1 pt favourite on Thursday afternoon. 90 min in the market sharps pushed this line to -3 for the Nuggets creating a 4 point swing. Most retail markets opened the Nuggets at -1. The Nuggets have been hot as of late on the road and have covered 8 of their last 9 road games. The Cavs haven't done well lately when being an underdog and have only covered 1 game out of their last 7. The Nuggets are coming in Cleveland with a high level of confidence after beating comfortably the Wizards and winning a big one in Philly. We would have thought the Nuggets would have been in let down spot in Washington but it wasn't the case and they were dominant. I understand the sharp interest in the Nuggets however my NBA model has this game at a pickem and there is some value on the Cavs at the current number. There is also some value on the under. Let's see if the sharps were right!

PORTLAND / BROOKLYN OVER

Both teams continue to miss key players and the sharps are expecting no defense tonight. The total opened at 223.5 yesterday night at Betonline and overnight this total moved between 223.5 and 227. Early this morning the total was back down to 225 and it seemed that some market makers couldn't make up their minds on the key opening number. About an hour ago, 3 market makers adjusted the total back to 228 when bet limits increased. We've covered this during the week, Portland's defense has been terrible and allows close to 125 pts per game in their last 5. They have the second-worst Adj defensive rating and opponents have been having a field day from the field. The Nets have peaked at 60% from the field versus Orlando and have been averaging over 54% from the field in their last 5 games. The Nets have also been averaging close to 130 pts per game in their last 5. The expectations are that the Nets continue to roll offensively however I am not too convinced about Portland's offense. My NBA model has this total at 224 thus at 228 it's inflated but I can never support the under especially when Portland is playing on the road. The over is 11-5 last when being a road underdog.

WINNIPEG JETS

The Bruins will be without Bergeron once again and it's a very difficult void to fill versus one of the hottest offensive teams in the last 2 weeks. The Jets have been averaging 4.40 GF/G in their last 5 and its approximately 1.35 more goals over their mean for the season. So yes, they have been hot. Both top lines have been contributing offensively and once again, shutdown Bergeron will be missed tonight. We can also expect some regression from the Jets, they scored 7 goals on Vegas on only 23 Shots/F while giving up 38 shots/A. The Bruins always have a chance when their stud Swayman is in between the pipes. He has yet to be confirmed therefore it's something to monitor. Copp is supposed to return tonight and that is a small boost for the Jets. 5Dimes opened the Bruins a -135 and the sharp interest on the home team forced the book to drop to the line by 20%. The handle is on the Jets at 88% however the public is responsible for 73% of the tickets. My model has this game a -105 therefore the model supports the move on the Jets

Good luck today

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