Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 17, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Sens were once again a disappointment and the sharps failed on that pick. The Knicks and TWolves were big winners and sharps were bang on. March Madness is here! There is only 1 NBA game and sharps are on both sides of that game. It's a busy slate in the NHL and our focus will be allocated there for today. At the end of this article, I will add some CBB games where sharps have taken position.

CAROLINA HURRICANES

Kallgren was under the spotlights in his first official start and expectations were low taking into consideration that the Leafs goalies couldn't stop a beach ball and allowing 5 GA per game in their last 6 games. He gets his second start and it's against the second-best team in the league. The Leafs will be without their best player for this game, Matthews will be serving his last game of suspension. The Canes away splits show that the focus is more on their defensive play however still score an 11th best 3.23 GF/G on the road. The Canes have a substantial advantage in defensive metrics, I'm not buying this Kallgren hype and neither are the sharps. Andersen is set to start, he's 30-8-2 this season, he has the second-best SV% amongst goalies with 25+ starts and the best GAA. 5dimes opened the Leafs a -130 favourite and they let sharps there do their thing. Less than an hour later Betonline opened the Leafs at -107 and the Canes how 69% of the handle. The max bet limits are still relatively low and we can see more movement throughout the day. My NHL model has this game at -105 and it supported the value on the Canes at the opening.

EDMONTON OILERS

Surprisingly there is not much sharp action in the NHL today. I wonder why! Oh wait... March Madness. A lot of money will be shifted to college kids instead of professional sports. I will keep an on the NBA slate tomorrow since it's a 12 game slate. Mike Smith is in nets tonight for the Oilers and that is always dangerous. He has a save % of .853 in his last 5 games, grades poorly in my DFS projections and I think there is value on the Sabres. My models and sharps disagree. Buffalo has success when playing vs Edmonton going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. The Oilers play under .500 vs teams from the east however had much better success in their last 5 games going 5-1. As I mentioned, the Sabres offense gets a bump with Smith in goals and Edmonton's and I really liked how they played versus the Leafs in the outdoor classic. Market makers opened the Oilers a -200 favourite and the sharps smashed the Oilers within minutes and the market adjusted the line to -240. My NHL model has the Oilers at -240 thus agrees with the sharps.

FLORIDA PANTHERS

Sharps bumped the Panthers to close 30 pts from its opening line. As mentioned in this week's articles, Vegas is missing close to half of their starting line up including their top 2 scorers and #1 goalie. This game is one of the most wagered games and I will cover more of the trends in the Betting the Trends article later this afternoon. In the meantime, and just to give you an idea, Vegas has allowed over 4.5 GA in their last game and they will face the #1 offense that averages 4.10 GF/G for the season. Unfortunately, there is no regression for the Panthers, they have averaged 4.10 GF/G in their last 5 and 10 games. In the last 5 games, Brossoit has a SV% of .850 and it's the worst on today's slate. I'm not too crazy from what I saw from the Panthers in San Jose and in LA but I doubt Vegas will be able to keep up with them. The line opened at -152 at Betonline yesterday morning and overnight we saw it drop to -140. Don't ask me why, I don't see who would be interested in Vegas at +137. Anyhow, overnight the line moved back to -150 and early this morning is when the big money came in pushing the line to -181. My NHL model has the Panthers at -158, to be honest, it's been a struggle to set an accurate rating for the Golden Knights with all the injuries. I support the sharps and the Panthers should roll.

Good luck today

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