Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 16, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

The Jets rolled over the Golden Knights and the sharps were spot on. The Canucks did play their usual defensive game and the Devils almost made a comeback. The sharps were wrong about the Devils. Phoenix was one of my VIP plays and we cashed that easily. My model liked the under but has mentioned I could also see the Suns score 130+. Sharps were right on the over.

OTTAWA SENATORS

Here we go again with the Sens. They were featured a couple of nights ago when they played the Coyotes and the sharps were wrong. Tonight they are facing one of the worst defensive teams however the Sens have one of the worst offense and they are ranked 26th in GF. They just allowed 11 goals to Arizona and Chicago in their last 2 games and they are 3-7 in their last 10. Columbus surprised the Wild 4 days ago and also took care of the Golden Knights which ran with their 3rd string goalie. I get that Columbus has crappy away splits but this is a team with 9 more wins than the Sens and overall better. Market makers opened the Sens at -107 yesterday morning and sharps pushed this line to -145. My NHL model has the Sens at -106 making the Blue Jackets the best current value of this slate with an EV of +10.19%. It's model vs sharp (ps: I love CBJ also)

NY KNICKS

The poor Knicks have been 10 pts favs 4 times this year and they are 0-4 ATS. The poor Blazers have been a 10 pt dog 6 times this year and they are 2-4 ATS. It's just weird to see the Knicks a double-digit favourite but they have been playing much better as of late. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games and they've covered against some solid teams like BKN, MEM, DAL and PHX. The Blazers are sad and lost in double-digits ATS margins in 5 of their last 8 games. Some of those losses were really really bad. My model has the Knicks favourite by 5 pts and it's off from what the market makers set this line. The Knicks opened a -9.5 favourite and sharps books adjusted their lines to -11 due to early sharp interest. I don't buy the value on Portland

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

The Lakers are terrible and they are one of the most faded teams in the NBA. They are 2-8 in their last 10, 0-4 away and 0-4 ATS on the road. During that span, their defense is ranking as one of the worst allowing on average 120 pts per game. The Lakers terrible defense will be facing the numero uno offensive team at home, who is also #1 in pace and OLP. KAT was phenomenal last game setting a new season-high record scoring 60 pts. Minnesota is coming into this game with a ton of momentum losing only 2 of their last 10 and covering 8 of their last 10. Market maker Betonline opened Minnesota at -6.5 yesterday afternoon and they have kept their max bet limits under 3k. Nonetheless, sharps have hit the TWolves up to -9. The line is currently at -9.5 and 85% of the handle is on Minnesota. For those that follow my NBA model, you noticed I have Minnesota at -10 thus I agree with the sharps and even though there is no more value here I still think Minnesota covers the number.

Good luck today

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