Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 15, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were wrong on the Sens last night, I liked Arizona if the line would have increased but I didn't the number I wanted. The Nuggets fought back and beat the 76ers. Harden did play and the line did move up a little. The Hornets took care of business and the game went down the way I expected.

WINNIPEG JETS

My gosh, what is going on with the Golden Knights? 3-7 in the last 10 and losers of 4 straight versus bad teams such as CBJ, PHI, BUF. I understand the expectations are higher for them however they are hurting. They are missing, Smith, Lehner, Pacioretty, Martinez, McNabb and Store. In the span of those last 5 games, they averaged 2.00 GF, 3.40 GA, a bad powerplay and a terrible PK. Won't be an easy task for them in Winnipeg, they are 1-5 SU in their last 6 in Winnipeg. The Jets have been playing a little better as of late however are not getting the usual support from Hells and have been involved in high scoring games in 3 of the last 4 games. Winnipeg averages 3.5 GF/G home and currently holds the 7th best powerplay at home and they should have their share of success versus VGK 17th in PK. Market makers opened this game at -105 yesterday and overnight sharps took a side on the Jets at -108 up to -125. There is still money coming in on the Jets and this line can keep on going up. My NHL model has the Jets at -112 so there is no value at this point.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS

Here we go again with the Devils. They are 5-5 in their last 10, 3-1 in their last 4 and looked really good versus the Ducks, Avs and Blues. Keep in mind those were all home games and they score .80 more goals at home than on the road. On the road, they barely score over 2 goals per game and even though the Canucks have been leaky in their last 5 games they still own a top 10 defense when playing at home. How much weight do we put on these stats when the Devils are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 played versus the Canucks and held them to score on average 1.20 goals per game. That is nuts! Jersey is 5-0 in their last 5 in Vancouver. Vancouver lost back to back games to 2 heavyweights (WSH and TB) and should have an easier time versus the road struggling Devils. Betonline opened the Devils a +153 yesterday morning and it only took 20 min on low bet max limits for the book to drop the line to +127. Sharps were quick. My model has the Devils at +134 and agreed with the value and the sharps.

PHOENIX / NEW ORLEANS OVER

Scoring will be an issue for the Pelicans tonight versus one of the top aDRTG (adj. defensive rating) teams in the league. Also, their injuries will just set them back even more. However, their opponents are having a field day with the Pelicans defense and put up over 130 pts in 3 of their last 5 games. Overall, the Pelicans still have a respectable 14th best defense at home and a poor 22nd best in offense. The Suns defense on the road is 4th, they don't do well rebounding however the Pelicans will be missing 2 big pieces at center. The total jumped 4 points from its 225 opening at 5Dimes. My model has this game at 223 and it's supporting the under. I believe this total can stay under the number but I can also see the Suns scoring 130+ and see the total go over.


Good luck today

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