Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 14, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

I hope everyone had a great weekend. IT'S MARCH MADNESS!! Let's get ready for another crazy week! We have a one-game slate in the NHL and sharps took their side already therefore we will review that game. Also, we have a busy day in the NBA so let's get to it.

OTTAWA SENATORS

Not sure about the entertainment quality of this game based on these bottom-of-the-league teams however the Flyers and Habs surprised us yesterday with a decent game and the same was on Saturday between the Habs and Kraken. Arizona is surprisingly 6-4 in their last 10, 4-1 in their last 5 and beat Toronto and Colorado. They also gave the Sens an 8-5 beating about a week ago. Ottawa was a -120 favourite in that game. Gustavsson is confirmed for tonight and he's been terrible with a 3.66 GAA and an SV% of .896. The Sens opened at -117 at market maker Betonline yesterday morning and the line jumped at -140 quickly on low bet limits. This morning the line reached -158 however readjusted at -145. The handle is at 65% for the Sens and we only see one set of sharps on this game and it's on the Sens. My NHL model has the Sens a -133 favourite therefore I agree with the initial value when the line was at -117. If this line keeps on going up, I may have some interest in Arizona which has been playing better hockey lately and has had great success versus Ottawa going 6-1 in their last 7.

DENVER NUGGETS

Now sure how I feel about this one however both teams have been terrible covering the number as of late. The 76ers needed OT to beat the Magic last night and they might be resting some guys since it's a b2b game. The Nuggets lost b2b games to Toronto and Golden State and lost both games with an average ATS margin of 16 points. If you are thinking of supporting the 76ers I recommend you wait and make sure you have confirmation of their starting lineup. Both teams have top 10 defenses and we can give the Nuggets a little edge based on the 76ers lack of offensive efficiency in their last 4 games. They shot under 40% in 3 of their last 4. 5dimes opened the 76ers a 5 point favourite yesterday afternoon and starting last night sharps hit the Nuggets at +5, +4 and +2.5 this morning. 80% of the current handle is on the Nuggets. My NBA model has the 76ers at -2.5 with Harden. If he's out on a therapy day or whatever they call it the line should be around -2 for the Nuggets. Keep an eye on the 76ers roster before pulling the trigger in this game.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS

I wasn't surprised to see this line open at -7 and I wasn't far off with my projected spread of -5. However, I was surprised to see this line more so quick on halfway opened max bet limits at the book. In a short span, sharps smashed the -7.5, -8 and -9. Also, this line seems it's going to keep on going up sitting at -10 -113. The handle is at 65% for the Hornets therefore the book must be really concerned with the sharps who are hitting this game. OKC has allowed over 130 points in their last 3 games and will face the 9th best aORTG team who is 3rd in in-game pace. OKC is third last in the length of defensive possession while Charlotte is 7th. The sharps are expecting the Hornets to play a very fast-paced game which OKC can match however should dismantle OKC's defense. Wiggins is questionable for tonight's game that is also a factor however my projections would move to -6.5 instead of -5.


Good luck today

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