Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps March 10, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits.

Sharps were wrong on Atlanta and I ended up making the Bucks a VIP play. The total moved from 237 to 241 and the game ended at 239 points As for the Pistons, the line moved between +5 and +6.5, some sharps ended up being happy while the majority of the public that supported the Piston at +5.5 or less ended their night in disappointment. In Minnesota, the total moved from 230 to 236 and the game finished at 234.

It's the NBA's turn with a light slate, only a 2 game slate. The focus will be on the NHL

BOSTON BRUINS

Kane's line put on a show Tuesday night versus the Ducks and beat them up 8-3. Must feel good for a team that is 6-14 in their last 20. They will now face the Bruins who are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and have the 5th best defense and 3rd best powerplay at home. The powerplay hasn't been clicking for the Bruins with only 2 goals in their last five however should expect some success versus Chicago's 29th PK on the road. Swayman is already confirmed and the sharps like his 2.03 GAA in this matchup. Puck control will be an issue for the Hawks in this game, they ran 26th in CF/60 while the Bruins have the 9th best rating. Market Makers opened the Bruins a -235 favourite and the sharps jumped on them pushing the handle at 80% on low bet limits and pushing the book to adjust the line to -268. My NHL model has the Bruins at -208 and there is about +8% EV on the Blackhawks. The Bruins line is inflated.

OTTAWA SENATORS

These teams have 37 wins combined, Colorado has 41.... Ottawa is 28th in the league and Seattle is not 30th. Seattle is terrible on the road going 7-20-2 for the season and is 11-33-1 has an underdog. Ottawa is 10-16-2 at home and was a favourite only 5 times this season and they are 2-3 in that spot. In the last 5 games, both teams allow close to 4 GA/G and barely put up 2.5 GF/G. The Sens do have a slight advantage in GF/60 and GA/60. The best metric to set both these teams apart is using the GAR (Goals above Average & replacement) from the folks at Evolving Hockey. That metric attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number. As for the Sens, they have a grading of 62.5 while 16.3 for Seattle. Ottawa's lines/players contributed at a greater ratio than Seattle. Now, what seemed to be a 50/50 type of game we can clearly give the Sens an edge. My NHL model has the Sens at -145 and the book didn't properly open this line. They posted a -117 this morning and sharps smashed this line to -138. I support the sharp interest in the Sens and so does my model.

TAMPA BAY

The Flames have only lost 3 games in their last 17 and continue to solidify their elite status. They gave up 5 goals to Washington in the last game and that is rare for the Flames that averages a league-best 2.19 GA/G at home this season. Won't get easier with the Lightning's elite offense that is scoring close to 4 goals per game on the road this season. Oddly enought, even the Lighting took a beating last game losing 7-4 to the Jets. The Flames have the highest GAR (most balance contribution from all players) however Tampa isn't too far in 6th place. The Lightning hasn't lost in Calgary since 2015 and they are 5-0 in their last 5 in Calgary. This game will feature two top-tier goalies, the best road offense, the top home defense and two top 10 FF% teams. This matchup is so even on paper that the market makers opened the line at -105 this morning. The sharps jumped on Tampa right before lunch and pushed the line to -125. As per my NHL model, the Flames hold a +11% EV and I have them at -125 while betonline has them at +110 making them the best value play of the night. I would prefer the home team in these types of matchups. It's sharps vs the model.


Good luck today

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