Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 4, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: We didn't have an article on June 3rd therefore ill review the plays on June 2nd. The sharps went 2-0 with the over in Golden State and the under in the NY Yankees game. The model was strong on the over but the sharps took that one and the model was wrong.

It was a big surprise to many that the second game between the Oilers and Avs went under. We had 2 sets of sharps in that game and the total did reach 7.5. For game 3, the story is similar. The over 7 was steamed on June 2nd early in the morning and it was featured in the early edition of the sharp report. Money kept coming in on the over overnight and early in the morning of June 3rd however sharp money was noticed on the under in the afternoon. 69% of the tickets are on the over, making this a square play while the 56% of the handle is now on the under 7. In terms of the game, Betonline and Sugarhouse opened their lines at the same time however with a 28% difference. BOL opened at-120 while SH opened at -148. It's at -127 at BOL and -132 at SH. No sharp money on either team in the offshore markets. The Oilers are in a better position at home with the last line change and can change their strategy on how to contain McKinnon's line. Colorado has yet to lose on the road in this year's playoffs and they should take a 3-0 lead on Saturday. The Avs are too deep, adjust very well and they've limited Edmonton to 1 HDCF from the crease last game. I would lean on the Avs and the under 7

In the NBA I feel like doing a copy and paste from my last write-up and just adding "beware of 4th Q meltdowns". What a freaking mess that was. How can the GS blow a 12 pt lead and get destroyed by 15? HOW? How can Curry have an unbelievable 1st Q and then not be able to carry that momentum? The NBA has been a turn-off for me this year and tunned into most of the game with 6-7 min left in the 4th Q. Alright, I'm done with the bitching. Just like game 1, the sharps are on the over. The over 214.5 got steamed at the opening and the total is now at 215.5. 70% of the tickets and 85% of the handle are on the over. I also support the over in this game and expect a ton of threes to fall.

This takes us to the MLB. The sharp report has 4 totals early this morning. Two of those games are the Rangers under 9 and the NY Yankees over 8.5. My MLB model is not showing much value on both games but I am going to lean towards the sharps today on both games. When the Yankees offense is clicking and when they are home, you don't look at the under. The wind is blowing out and Giancarlo might be back. Brieske is 0-3 on the road with an ERA of close to 6. He gave up 12 runs in his last 3 games and 5 HRs. I doubt he lasts more than 4 innings and then the Yankees can smash Detroit's BP. Texas stadium became a pitchers park and ranks at the bottom of the league. Both offenses have been inconsistent this year however ranked 4th and 12th in wRC+ in the last 7 days. Gonzales hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in his last 3 outings and pitched a minimum of 6 innings in each game. Otto has been pitching much better since that beating versus Boston where he gave up 8 runs. Since then, he hasn't allowed an HR and more than 2 runs per game.

Good luck today

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