Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 2, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: My gosh the Rangers demolished the Lightning eh? Not sure many were expecting this outcome. The only game we covered was the Padres and the sharps were wrong on that one and my model was right in b2b nights.

There is not much to write in the NHL. The Sharp report posted this morning that sharp interest was on the over 7 in game 2 and it hasn't changed. It might change overnight or in the morning since the total is moving to 7.5 and Ill to see if another set of sharps takes a position on the under. At Betonline the total is still at 7 however you need to pay -140 for the over. The handle is 50/50 and 65% of the tickets are on the over.

7.5 is a big number and I believe the defenses will show up for game 2. Colorado has allowed on average 2.50 GA/G during the playoff and allowing 6 goals is unusual for them. Kuemper is questionable for game 2 and it's unclear if he will suit up. I like what I saw from Francouz and he's 18-5 for the season with an SV% of .920. He's a solid backup. He never faced the Oilers so I cant pull his splits. Max bet limits are at about 8k on the total and it's low for a bet that moved by half a goal. I believe that squares will be all over the over also and I'd like to bet the under at 7.5 but it's hard to pull the trigger knowing that they can score 8 goals in 1 period. And lastly... Mike Smith......ill just stop there...

Thank god we are getting back some NBA. The sharp report posted sharp interest on the over 210.5 3-4 days and I have yet to see a different set of sharps on the under. The total moved at 212.5 last night and it hasn't moved. My model has the total projected at 211 therefore there is no value. The spread hasn't moved at the book even with 82% of the handle on the Warriors. Consensus is another book where the spread is stuck at -3.5 however it's interesting to point out that some US books moved the line to -4.5 just to move it back to -3.5 or -4. The Celtics showed us that they can shut down top teams shooting 3's but it will be hard to do the same versus the Warriors. There is too much talent on the floor and I expect the overs to hit in GS. I support the over up to 215 and my lean is on the Celtics.

In baseball, the initial sharp report has 5 games where the sharps took interest. One of them is the Yankees under 7.5 in game 1. Cortes and Detmers will be taking the mount at 1:05 EST. My MLB model once again doesn't agree with the sharp money. We have a projected total of 9.04 and +17% EV on the over. Both teams hit lefties well. The Angels have the 5th best BA versus LHP. The Yankees have the 5th best wRC+ versus LHP and the best ISO at .203. We might see fireworks on both sides in game 1. I disagree with the sharp interest and ill trust the model in this one.

Good luck today

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