Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps June 1, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by setting their bet limits lower when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

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RECAP: That Colorado Edmonton game last night was insane! The only game we reviewed with sharp money yesterday was the Yankees under 9. The sharps were wrong and my model was right. I didn't end up playing it and that was one of my so many stupid decisions in May.

Similar to the Colorado game last night, we have 2 sets of sharps on both the side and the total in the Tampa New York game tonight. The Lighting is well-rested and is starting the series on the road. They are -180 favourites to win the series and -126 for tonight's game. The total is 5.5 and it moved from over -118 to under -119. This is a series that should be dominated by the goalies and we shouldn't see lots of goals or blowouts. As of this morning, 70% of the handle is on Tampa and 64% on the under 5.5. The max bet limits are at 15k and I don't expect much movement for the rest of the day. My model has Tampa favourite with a 52% win probability and this opens up value on the Rangers. I feel that the Lighting is priced as if Point would be playing and the current line is a little too high. As mentioned, we have sharps on both the over and under however my focus would be on the under. The Lighting limited the powerful Panther's offense to 3 goals in the second round. That is unfreaking believable and Andrei was unreal. The Rangers allowed 3 goals in their last 3 home games and the defense is realigning and playing much better. The only concern is that the Rangers have allowed close to 40 SOG in back-to-back games. If it wasn't for Igor the outcome would have definitely been different. Just take a quick look at the last game's puck possession and heat map.

Final notes on tonight's game: I will support the sharps that are on the under. Both goalies should steal the show in this game and series.

In baseball, the sharp report currently has 3 games. Sharp money bets are 125-98 +16 units for the season. Last night my model loved the Padres and come short. Today my model like the Cards but the sharps jumped on the Padres overnight and 80% of the handle is on them. I hate to put my money on Darvish. He always screws me. I am not betting on this game. The Padres have never been swept this season and will be looking at taking one game in this series. Darvish has shitty splits on the road with an ERA of 5.81 but 1.33 in day games on a sample size of 21 innings pitched. With Hudson it's simple, he will either allow no runs or 3 or 4. Nonetheless, I like him at home with his 1.37 ERA. The more I look into this game and the more I like the under. The total did drop from 8.5 to 8 but I can assume that sharp interest came from the US market since the offshore book has been quiet on the total. 60% of the handle is on the over so it's clear somewhere likes the under and the Reverse line movement (RLM) confirms it.

Good luck today

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