Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 9, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: No games to review

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Sharps are very very busy for the Saturday games. It's Friday 9:12 PM EST and the volume is high on 8 games already. I haven't sorted out the top 5 yet but there are a couple of games in which both the model and the sharps like. One of them is the over 6.5 in San Diego and the other is Baltimore at +119. The total in the Padres game is already at 7 and the Orioles line is dropping slowly.

Kremer has been very good for the Orioles and aside from his last outing, he puts up a solid 5-6 innings, will SO 4-5 and hardly gets blown up. He's allowed only 2 HR and prior to his last start, he gave up 4 ERs in his last 27 IPs. Sandoval hasn't won a game since May 22nd and he's coming in with a WHIP of 1.62 in his last 3 starts. We can say that he will get a boost vs the Orioles that have the 3rd worst K%, 9th worst OPS and 8 worst BA versus LHP. My lean will be on the O's and Kremer over a massively underperforming Angels team.

As for the over 6.5 in San Diego, I don't get it. Both offense are 2nd and 3rd last in terms of runs scored in the last 14 days. During that same period, they are the 3rd and 4th worst in wRC+ and FFS the Padres have an ISO of .101 and SF .126. I hate Darvish!!!! His road splits are terrible but he won't be facing the Dodgers or Phillies which he gave up 8 ERs in his last 2 starts and at home, he's 4-1 with an ERA of under 2 and a WHIP of 0.73. Rodon is a stud. He messed up last game but prior to that, he only gave up 2 ERs in his last 27 IPs. Both teams have been striking out in the 23+% levels in the L14. Lastly, I can't support the over when a team's BA is .191 and their opponent is .219. I most probably will be on the under on Saturday.

Good luck today

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