Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 8, 2022
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Sharps and the betting loved the under between the Tigers and White Sox. I said away as mentioned in the write up however I should have known better and tailed the play with Cease on the mount.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
For Friday, my betting model and sharps don't agree on any games. The early update of the sharp report shows that sharps are on MINNESOTA -109 ,CUBS +205, ARIZONA -146, TAMPA BAY -172 and MILWAUKEE -215. Below is a picture of my betting model and the EV for each game:
Oddly enough this morning, we don't have much sharp interest in totals but from a different source, I can confirm that sharps at other books like Oakland under 7.5, KC under 9 and San Diego under 7.5. Once again, referring to the betting model, none of those totals show value.
I will update this article if something comes up throughout the day.
Good luck today
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