Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 6, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Sharps and the model are on the over 7.5 in Oakland. The total moved to 8.5 behind a ton of sharp and square money. I'm on the under... ill update once the game is over.

UPDATE:

Well, that was crazy last night. Sharps and the model were on the over in Oakland. Total opens are 7.5 and go all the way up to 8.5. I bet the under 8. The game finishes at 8. We have sharps at 7.5 that won on the over and the poor squares that took the over 8.5 lost. We pushed.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

For Wednesday, the sharps are on 2 totals as of late Tuesday. St Louis over 8.5 and San Francisco over 8.5 The model doesn't agree with both plays. My projections on the St Louis game is a full run on the under, 7.46 and at par in the Giants total. More games will pop up overnight and I'll update the article in the early morning.

UPDATE:

The sharps and the model are on the same side on another underdog. The Cardinals opened a +170 underdog and the line was pushed down to +151 with some sharp money supporting the move. St Louis's offense did cool down the last 7 days and is 20th in wRC+ but it doesn't change the fact that they are 2nd in wRC+ this season versus LHP. We don't need to dig in Fried's numbers. He's an elite pitcher and he gets a ton of support from his offense. Mikalos on the other hand is due for some regression based on his SIERA of 4.16 versus an ERA of 2.61. He hasn't won a game since June 14th, he has 2 losses and 1 ND. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs since June 3rd. Will that regression hit tonight? The Braves have the 5th best offense this year and they have the 3rd best BA (.278) in the last 7 days. They are also hitting the ball with lots of power with an ISO of .195. Mikolas is more of a GB pitcher (46%) and has HC% of 29% which can limit the Brave's power hitters. Like I said in our VIP discord server, I always like the Cardinals versus LHP but this is a tough match-up for them especially since they are 0-6 L6 vs the Braves and have barely put up 4 runs in their last 3 games.

Good luck today

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