Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 5, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The Mariners are up 7-0 in the 6th as I'm writing this. Looks like the sharps and my model were right on this one.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

For Tuesday, the sharps and model don't agree on a game yet. Sharps like the over 9.5 in Atlanta and the under 9 in Cincinnati. According to my projections, the Cincinnati game total is correctly set however the model likes the under in Atlanta and it has an +EV of close to 8%. I will update this article when we find a game that both the sharps and model likes.

UPDATE:

One of the sharp money plays that hasn't made the sharp report but that is aligned with my betting model is over in 7.5 in Oakland tonight. However, I have a AA rating play on the under 8 this morning so this will be interesting tonight. Sharps and model vs AnthonyP.

My approach here is more contrarian than anything else. Squares will be massive on the over tonight and on the surface, they might not be wrong. The A's offense is dog shit and I have no idea how they got to Manoah in the first yesterday. Something is definitely off with the Jays. It can be that the team is mourning the death of the daughter of one of the coaches. The Jays are very tight, very family orientated, and the players and coaches are very close. Romo was talking about that this week in an interview, that was the reason he signed with the Jays. The Jays are 1-4 in July but their numbers have been average, 103 wRC+, .257 BA, 16% K%, .313 wOBA but haven't hit with power and have a .144 ISO. Again, the A's offense is shit and they have a K% of 30% in July. We don't know much about Martinez, the sample size is small. He got rocked last game vs Seattle but pitched will versus the Tigers, well who doesn't eh? With an xERA of 4.52, we should expect better performances on his part. As for Kikuchi, he will be top chalk in DFS and this is a great spot for him to continue building from his last start where he had 8 K's, gave up 4 hits,1 ER (on an HR) and pitched for 6 innings for the first time since May 16th. I don't agree with the sharps and my model. I believe the Jays will continue to struggle on offense and Kikuchi will shut down the A's. I'm playing the under.

Good luck today

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