Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 4, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The over in Seattle was a bust. Both pitchers pitched well and the game finished 2-1.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it's going to usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Today's game is a dog!! Does anyone love dogs? The VIPs hit a nice one with the White Sox on Sunday. On Monday the sharps like the red hot Mariners. They won 5 of 6 and have won their last 3 series. With not even a pitcher confirmed, the sharps hit the Mariners at +158. Based on their season pitching stats, my model has them at +143 hence there is some value. This projection might change once the starting pitcher is confirmed and we have to keep an eye on the weather report since winds might be blowing out to center. The Padres saved face by avoiding a sweep in Dodgers land. Previously, they lost a game in a short 2-game series in Arizona and prior to that they lost 3 of 4 to Philly at home. The Mariners might be 0-4 in their last 4 meetings in San Diego and 2-8 last 10, but they sport the 10th best wRC+ in the last 14 days with a BABIP of .270 and carry better momentum. Maena has 8 ND in his last 9 and hasn't really pitched well last 3 games with an ERA of close to 6 and a WHIP of 1.40. I will side with the sharps and my betting model on this one!

Good luck today

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