Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 29 2022

2 years ago

Anthony P

While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Dodgers took care of the over by themselves yesterday. Sharps, model, and whale were on the under BUT I DIDN'T AGREE!!!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

I expected much more action Thursday night for the Friday games based on the number of games we had on Thursday. But it's not the case. The only game in which sharps have taken an interest is on the Guardians. Cleveland was a huge chalk play on Thursday night and I made the Red Sox a VIP play and cashing in on a contrarian bet. My model doesn't agree and the value is on the Rays at +6% EV at -102. Bieber hasn't been good (or himself) in his last 5 outings giving up 18 ERs in his last 35 IP. In his last 3 games, he gave up 18 hits in 20 IP and 12 ERs. Springs is projected for the Rays and he gets a bump facing the 2nd worst team in OPS versus lefties. Not too sure about this one.

UPDATE:

We found a game where both the sharps and model agree. Sharps are not a fan of Snell tonight and have jumped on the Twins at+111. The move happened early this afternoon and my MLB betting model is showing close to +7 % EV in favour of the Twins. I'm loving Ryan this season, he's been great all season, pitched well on the road and he's been rock solid last 3 games with a WHIP of 0.86. The concern with the Twins is their BP and Ryan doesn't really have a long leash. The bad news, is the BP allowed over 7 runs in their last 5 games, the good news, is that they are rested. The Twins have dominated the Padres, going 6-1 in their L 7 in San Diego and 12-2 in their last 14 meetings. Snell deserves better with his xFIP of 3.93 and xERA of 3.60 versus his ERA of over 5 but he's inconsistent and his BB/9 is at his career high at 5.40. I like the Twins tonight and I support the sharps and model!