Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 26, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The model and sharps were on point with the over in Philadelphia last night. I was on the under and I was feeling pretty good after watching from the bottom of the 6th all the way to the top of the 8th.... Thank you Minter!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

Sharps have been busy lately and we have a set of totals that they've jumped on early Monday night for the Tuesday games:

SEATTLE UNDER 8 -102: DK still has it at 8.5 -120. My model has this game at 8.28. No value.

PHILADELPHIA UNDER 8 -111: This can drop to 7.5. Opened at 8o -115 and is currently at 8u -112 at Betonline. My model has this game at 8.28 so once again no value.

TAMPA BAY OVER 7.5 -113: Currently at 8u -115, the over got smashed at 5Dimes and my contact is saying the same guys smashed it at Caesars in the US. My model agrees with the sharp interest and the projected total is set at 8.64 giving us about 6.5% EV.

When betting the over in a Rays game you need to look at their short-term splits since they are streaky. I would have not considered this over if they faced an LHP. They've been hitting .179 in the last 5 games and barely putting up 2.38 runs per game. Versus an RHP, it's a different story, they are hitting .262 and average 5.19 runs in their last 5. The bullpen has been roughed up and allowing close to 5 runs per game in their last 5. It's the opposite for Baltimore, the starters have been awful however the relievers have limited the opposition to 1.88 runs per game. The question is, how many runs will the Orioles get versus McClanahan? In his last 10 starts, only 1 team was able to get more than 1 run and it was the White Sox, they got 2 on him. Baltimore has the 9th worst OPS and the 3rd highest K rate versus LHP. Oddly enough, the Rays have the 9th worst OPS versus RHP and I dont expect any positive regression with their BABIP stabilized near .300 and wRC+ at 99 but they've been better versus their season numbers. Walkins has been really good since his June 25th start. He allowed 3 runs in his last 22 IPs, his ERA is at 1.53, and WHIP at 0.85 in his last 3 starts. Personally, I'm not too sure about this over and I'll stay away.

Good luck today

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