Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 25, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The sharps and my betting model saw something that I didn't. Both were on the Angels today and they were not wrong. The sharps cashed on a big underdog!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

For Monday's games, the sharps took an early jump on KANSAS CITY -112
CINCINNATI UNDER 9.5 -122 and ATLANTA OVER 8 -115 as reported on the Sharp Report.

The MLB betting model doesn't agree with the sharp interest on KC. The model has them at +121 therefore value is on the Angels with a +EV of 7%. The model is projecting 9.02 runs in Cincinnati Monday and the sharps were on the under 9.5. The total did move down to 9 and there is no more value.

The model does agree on the over 8 in Philadelphia however it's on the move and it should move to 8.5 anytime. The model has this game projected at 8.54 and there is about 5% EV. The Phillies have been driving me crazy this year with the inconsistencies and just when we expect them to lay an egg they have a huge game. Tomorrow they will face Fried, who's been a stud all season and perfect on the road with a 5-0 record. 2.51 ERA and a WHIP of 0.79. I don't care who wins this game, I just want to know if the Phillies will be able to put up some runs on Fried. The Phillies are 10th on OPS versus LHP, 6th with an ISO of .177, and 13th in runs scored. The Braves have been smashing LHP and have a BA of .419 in their last 5 games plus they have averaged 6.4 runs per game. Let's not forget they are #1 in OPS at .798 versus LHP. Suarez's home splits are terrible but he limited the Braves to only 4 runs less than 1 month ago. I am not worried about the Braves bats but I just don't trust the Phillies. I'll stay away from this total.

Good luck today

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