Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 22, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Tapia and Snead failed to do their jobs and allowed 4 runs in the last 3 innings. Snead had the chance to give the under a win or a push depending if you have the under 7 or under 7.5 but that POS gave up 2 runs on 2 hits and the game finished at 9 runs.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

The model is currently running projections for Friday's games. In the meantime, sharps have been active this evening. As per Friday's sharp report, sharps took an early jump on TEXAS -108, CLEVELAND +140. CUBS +117 and BALTIMORE UNDER 9 -114

UPDATE:

Based on this morning's update, here are the top games where sharps have taken position: TEXAS -108 , CLEVELAND +140, CUBS +117, TAMPA BAY -118
and TORONTO -111. My betting model agrees with Cleveland and Tampa Bay. With the Guardians, we still find about +3% EV, and obviously, it was higher when they were +152. As for Tampa, we still have about +4.5% EV at the current number.

Gio's last start was versus the Guardians and he pitched 6.1 innings, K'd 5, allowed 5 hits, and no ERs. With an ERA of 4.69, the worst since 2018, but an xFIP of 3.66, I feel he deserves better but it's been an up and down season. The Guardians have been a top 10 hitting team versus RHP this season and if Gio has control issues it's going to be hard to contain Cleveland which has the best K% versus RHP (17.7%). Gio has already beaten the Guardians twice this year. I'm not a fan of Quantrill when he's on the road. His ERA jumps from 3.19 to 4.66, BA average from .231 to .309, and wOBA from .296 to .359. but he is good enough to contain the 9th worst team versus RHP. The last time he played the White Sox I think he got too comfortable with a 5-0 lead in the first. He ended up giving up 4 ERs but won the game. I have concerns about his 2.38 GB:FB and Anderson and Robert have been smashing him. I'm staying away from this game.

I can easily see Tampa Bay being the most popular square play today. Close to 85% of tickets are on the Rays. The line opened at -119 and it's moving close to -130. Tampa finished the first half strong winning 5 of the last 6 and 6 of the last 10. The Rays have also dominated the Royals on a larger sample size winning 15 of the last 20. The Royals are 24th in wRC+ versus RHP and it won't get easier Rasmussen. I do have concerns about Rasmussen's road splits where his ERA elevates from 2.09 at home to 4.50 on the road. I also believe that the Rays are due for some type of regression since they have been overperforming based on the shit load of injuries they have. Keller has been solid since his June 18th start. He's only allowed 7 ERs in his last 5 starts and 4 of those runs came against the Astros. He had a season-high 8k's in his last start versus Detroit and now he faces the 4 highest strikeout team versus RHP pitchers with a k% of 25%. My initial thoughts were that the under is a better play but my model has this game at 8.74 runs therefore not much value. My lean would be on the Rays since they have been much more consistent however if Keller keeps on pitching well and gets any sort of run support, the Royals might just be the best contrarian play tonight.

Good luck today

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