Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps July 21, 2022

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: Our last edition was 5 days ago and it feels like forever. Glad to be back ad grind the second half of the season with you degenerates!!

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the sharp report in the morning which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

A couple of doubleheaders today between the Yankees and Astros + Detroit and Oakland. The NY-HOU should keep us entertained for most of the day however the Tigers-A's should put us to sleep.

One of the biggest moves we've seen overnight was on the Rangers. They opened a +115 underdog and the line is currently at -104. 66% of the handle is on Miami but it's all been Rangers money since 1am. Another interesting move was the Tigers in game 1. Opened at -125 and moved 20 pts to -145 this morning. Lastly, The Giants opened at +143 and dropped to +128. My MLB model does not show any value on any of these games however the sharps and my model do agree on a total.

DET-HOU under 7.5u -120. My model has game 1 projected at 6.87 runs and we can still find some value at some sportsbooks. I am seeing the total move down to 7 however some books, like Ceasars, still have it at 7.5.

No matter how we choose our date ranges, both offenses have been awful and sit 29th and 30th in runs scored this year. We have 2 lefties on the mount in game 1. I wont be covering much of Skubal because we know what to expect from him and his xFIP of 3.28. The A's are 19th in runs scored versus LHP, 26th in wRC+, 28th in OPS and 25th in ISO. I don't anticipe the A's to put up many runs today versus Skubal and his bullpen. Logue gets a little boost vs the Tigers who are the 4th worst in the league in runs scored versus LHP. They are also 4th worst in ISO at .114 and that is an important factor coming in to this game since Logue is a liablity when facing teams that have power versus LHP. We've seen it versus the Rangers and Mariners where he allowed 5 HRs in those 2 games. Miraculously, he caught the the Astros napping, he only allowed 2 runs and 0 HR. If we see any runs in this game it will come from the Tigers and I don't believe the can score 5+. I'll support the sharps and my model on this under 7.5.

Good luck today

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